Gareth's Good Thing: Profiting from a snoozefest at Villa Park

Match Odds: Aston Villa 2.47/5; The Draw 3.4549/20; Sunderland 3.39/4

Sunderland had the look of a team already on the beach against Wolves last weekend. Indeed since a great performance three games ago at the Etihad Stadium when they drew 3-3 with Manchester City, they have failed to trouble the scorer and they were especially dire in a 4-0 defeat to a weakened Everton side who were preparing for an FA Cup semi final, two games ago. I think it's safe to bet that they are very unlikely to go goal crazy at Villa Park too.

They have only scored 18 goals away from home this season in 17 games, and this is a game with a history of low scores.

The Black Cats have scored only six times in their last 10 visits to Villa Park, and in fact in 21 Premier League clashes between the sides, only once has one of the sides scored more than twice (a 3-1 win to the Midlanders in 2005).

Given Villa's precarious position, parlous squad and form (or lack of it), a repeat is pretty unlikely.

Villa's 16 home games have been particularly hard for the fans to swallow this season. Only Wigan have managed fewer than their 18 home goals, and only Wigan and Wolves have managed fewer home wins.

They have become the draw specialists of the Premier League, finishing all square 14 times in their 33 games - four more than any other team.

In addition to losing key players over the summer in the transfer market, they have also lost some of the big guns within the current playing staff and the squad is looking extremely stretched with many reserve and fringe players having to be drafted into the first team. And that's been the main reason they have been dragged into the relegation picture. However, the good news for manager Alec McLeish is that defensive linchpin Richard Dunne is close to a return for the crucial run-in after two months on the sidelines, and that will help shore things up.

However, their goal difference means they have an extra point on their relegation rivals, so despite winning only one of their last ten and being second bottom of the ten-match form table, they are still effectively seven points clear of the drop zone with five games to go.

One win definitely sees them safe, but a couple of draws will do too. And the manager, who is not aggressive at the best of times and doesn't have the players or confidence to go for broke anyway, will not risk a point to go for three at this stage of the season if the game is all square in the closing stages.

Looking at the betting, the draw is tempting in the Match Odds market at 3.4549/20. But the dynamics of both teams suggest that this has the hallmarks of a low scoring encounter and it may pay to back under 2.5 goals in the game at the available 1.794/5.

Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals at 1.794/5