What The Stats Say: Goals will flow when Chelsea host Liverpool

  • Dan Fitch
  • Four minutes min read
Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp.
Does Jurgen Klopp have reason to be concerned about Liverpool's defence?

Dan Fitch looks at statistics from Opta to help find bets on the weekend Premier League games and he fancies Chelsea's match with Liverpool to get off to a lively start...

“Since their 2019-20 title win was confirmed in June, Liverpool have conceded 15 goals in their eight Premier League games (W5 D1 L2) – their previous 15 league goals conceded came across a 23-game spell.”

Back over 1.5 first-half goals between Chelsea and Liverpool at 2.56/4

Calvert-Lewin is Everton's top man

Everton 1.594/7 v West Brom 6.86/1; The Draw 4.47/2
Saturday 19 September, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Since the start of last season, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is Everton's highest goalscorer in the Premier League (14), while Lucas Digne has provided more assists than any other player at the club (8). These two players combined for Everton's winner against Tottenham on MD1."

With West Brom conceding three against Leicester last weekend, Calvert-Lewin looks a good price at 2.35/4 to score again.

More goals from promoted clubs

Leeds 1.664/6 v Fulham 6.411/2; The Draw 4.1
Saturday 19 September, 15:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Leeds scored with all three of their shots on target in their opening day defeat against Liverpool."

These teams are both likely to be better going forward than they are defensively in the Premier League. Over 2.5 goals is value at 1.981/1.

Fernandes take United to another level

Manchester United 1.351/3 v Crystal Palace 10.519/2; The Draw 6.05/1
Saturday 19 September, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Since his debut for the club in February, Bruno Fernandes has been involved in 20 of Man Utd's 51 goals in all competitions (39%), leading the way for both goals (12) and assists (8) for the Red Devils in that time."

Manchester United have been transformed since signing Fernandes and you can back over 2.5 goals and a home win at 1.9520/21.

Aubemeyang to celebrate new deal

Arsenal 1.564/7 v West Ham 6.611/2; The Draw 4.77/2
Saturday 19 September, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored eight goals in his last six appearances for Arsenal in all competitions, netting in each of his last four games for the Gunners. The Gabonese striker has also been directly involved in 15 goals in his last 16 Premier League London derbies (12 goals, 3 assists)."

Back Aubameyang to celebrate signing a new contract with the Gunners by scoring the first goal at 3.711/4.

Saints will score against Spurs

Southampton 3.39/4 v Tottenham 2.47/5; The Draw 3.55/2
Sunday 20 September, 12:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Against no other current Premier League side are Spurs on a longer wait for a clean sheet than they are versus Southampton, failing to keep a shutout in any of their last nine meetings with Saints (also nine v Liverpool).

Tottenham rarely keep a clean sheet against anyone these days and both teams to score is 1.824/5.

Wilson nice price to score on home debut

Newcastle 2.727/4 v Brighton 3.02/1; The Draw 3.259/4
Sunday 20 September, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Both Callum Wilson and Jeff Hendrick scored on their Premier League debuts for Newcastle against West Ham last week - only Les Ferdinand in August 1995 has scored in both of his first two appearances for the club in the competition."

Wilson will be keen to endear himself to the Newcastle crowd and is 3.211/5 to score on his home debut.

Liverpool defence in decline

Chelsea 3.39/4 v Liverpool 2.285/4; The Draw 3.814/5
Sunday 20 September, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Since their 2019-20 title win was confirmed in June, Liverpool have conceded 15 goals in their eight Premier League games (W5 D1 L2) - their previous 15 league goals conceded came across a 23-game spell."

With Chelsea hardly being the most defensively stable side themselves, over 1.5 first-half goals could land at 2.56/4.

Burnley often claim draw in this fixture

Leicester 1.684/6 v Burnley 6.05/1; The Draw 4.1
Sunday 20 September, 19:00
Live on BBC One

"Leicester are unbeaten in nine home league games against Burnley (W5 D4), including all five of their games against them at the King Power Stadium in the Premier League (W3 D2)."

Given the amount of home draws Leicester have had against Burnley and the away form of the Clarets towards the end of the season, the stalemate could be value at 4.1.

Blades are blunt on the road

Aston Villa 2.8615/8 v Sheffield United 2.829/5; The Draw 3.39/4
Monday 21 September, 18:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Sheffield United are winless in six away league games (D2 L4) since beating Crystal Palace 1-0 in February. They have scored just two goals across these six outings combined. Indeed, the Blades lost four of their last five away league games of the 2019-20 season (D1), more than their previous 29 league matches on the road before this (W11 D15 L3)."

Villa have made some positive signings in the summer and kept Jack Grealish. Back them in the Draw No Bet market at 1.9210/11.

Wolves hunt another City scalp

Wolves 6.86/1 v Manchester City 1.564/7; The Draw 4.77/2
Monday 21 September, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Wolves were one of just two sides to complete a Premier League double over Manchester City last season (also Manchester United); they last won three consecutive top-flight meetings with the Citizens back in October 1961 (seven in a row)."

It would be foolish to back against the star-studded visitors, but this one could be much more competitive than the odds suggest. Both teams to score is 1.814/5.

Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 53.00 pts
Returned: 59.45 pts
P/L: +6.45 pts

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