Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions in Serie A as leaders AC Milan face a huge test...
"Fiorentina have become the first Serie A club to make a mid-season managerial change, with Cesare Prandelli returning for a second spell in charge after Giuseppe Iachini's departure."
Lazio to come through Crotone trip unscathed
Lazio have been working their way back up the Serie A table after a slow start, and can continue this trend with a victory at bottom of the table Crotone. Giovanni Stroppa's hosts earned their first clean sheet since promotion last time out but are still winless, and an average of 2.1 xGA per game at Enzo Scida doesn't bode well for the home side.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Atalanta to get back to winning ways on the road
Atalanta have won just one of their last five games in all competitions, but will hope the international break has given them an opportunity to recharge. They travel to Spezia to take on a side without a home win this term, and Infogol gives the visitors a 69% chance of taking all three points at Dino Manuzzi.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Juve to keep up the pressure with home win
Juventus are still unbeaten in the league under Andrea Pirlo, but have been drawing too many games so far. They can set that right at home to a Cagliari side coming off two defeats from their last three away games, and will hope Alvaro Morata can build on the goal he scored in Spain's midweek 6-0 victory over Germany.
Back the 3-0 @ 10.009/1
Prandelli to get off to winning start in Florence
Fiorentina have become the first Serie A club to make a mid-season managerial change, with Cesare Prandelli returning for a second spell in charge after Giuseppe Iachini's departure. The former national team boss has the perfect chance to get off to a winning start, with the Viola welcoming a Benevento side with the worst defensive record in the division in both real and expected goals, and Infogol's model gives the hosts a 63% chance of victory.
Back the 3-0 @ 14.0013/1
Inter to bring winless run to an end
Inter haven't won any of their last four games at home or on the continent, though a challenging run of fixtures has something to do with that. A home game against Torino feels much more welcoming for Antonio Conte's men, though, and the Nerazzurri have been better than their seventh place suggests. Infogol gives Conte's team a 74% chance of victory, though the game could still be a close one.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1
Roma to end Parma's four-game unbeaten run
Roma have been one of Serie A's most dangerous attacking sides this season, with the highest xGF in the division, and they should have enough to overpower visitors Parma at the Olimpico. A run of four games unbeaten for Fabio Liverani's side isn't as impressive as it sounds, consisting of three league draws and a win over Pescara in the Coppa Italia, and a home win looks likely here.
Back the 3-1 @ 11.50
Sampdoria to edge tight game against Bologna
Sampdoria and Bologna were separated by just five points in the 2019/20 season, and could end this campaign just as close to one another if current trends continue. Claudio Ranieri's hosts have outperformed their xG this season while Siniša Mihajlović's visitors have underperformed theirs, and Infogol believes Ranieri's men should have just enough to avenge last season's 2-1 defeat at Luigi Ferraris.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Verona to inflict a first defeat on high-flying Sassuolo
Sassuolo missed a chance to go top of the table last week, drawing a blank against Udinese, and they could fall further off the pace as they take on a Verona side which came close to ending AC Milan's unbeaten run last week. The visitors are yet to taste defeat in the league this season, but they'll be up against it away to the team with Serie A's best home record this season.
Back the 2-1 @ 12.50
Udinese to kick-start season at Friuli
Two members of the current bottom three meet in Udine, but the hosts deserve to be much higher based on their performances. Two late goals helped the visitors claim a point in last season's corresponding fixture, but Infogol backs Luca Gotti's hosts to build on their draw at Sassuolo and lift themselves out of the relegation places.
Back the 2-0 @ 9.4017/2
Napoli to hand Milan their first league defeat
Milan needed a late equaliser against Verona to keep their unbeaten run intact, but the Rossoneri's luck may well run out at the San Paolo. Rino Gattuso will be keen to earn three points against his former employers, while Dries Mertens will be keen to his fine goal for Belgium against England, and Infogol gives Napoli a 46% chance of victory after having to settle for a 2-2 draw in the same fixture back in July.
Back the 2-0 @ 15.0014/1
Crotone v Lazio: Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Spezia v Atalanta: Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Juventus v Cagliari: Back the 3-0 @ 10.009/1
Fiorentina v Benevento: Back the 3-0 @ 14.0013/1
Inter Milan v Torino: Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1
Roma v Parma: Back the 3-1 @ 11.50
Sampdoria v Bologna: Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Verona v Sassuolo: Back the 2-1 @ 12.50
Udinese v Genoa: Back the 2-0 @ 9.4017/2
Napoli v AC Milan: Back the 2-0 @ 15.0014/1