England v Wales: Back both sides to net in a Three Lions victory

• England thrashed Serbia in their last outing and should win again

• Wales are not to be underestimated under Craig Bellamy so can score

• Harry is a goalscorer bet...but it's not (the injured) Kane

• Safe Sub is here for the 2025-26 season - read all about it!

England v Wales
Thursday 09 October, 19:45
Live on ITVX, UTV, STV, ITV 1 & S4C

Has Tuchel's project turned a corner?

In the most recent international camp last month, I tipped Under 2.5 goals in one match and Harry Kane to score first in the other. The results?

England 2-0 Andorra (own goal, Declan Rice)
Serbia 0-5 England (Harry Kane first goal on 33 minutes)

Bingo!

Well, not quite as I'd recommended Kane to score first against Andorra, and Under 2.5 goals in the Serbia game! All I'll say is I probably wasn't the only one to 'do an Eric Morecambe' and get the right bets but in the wrong order.

Thomas Tuchel received plenty of flak after the Andorra game as it followed on from several other stodgy performance since he was appointed as the successor to Gareth Southgate. Was the shirt wearing heavy again?

England needed to show something and, boom, they did just that with a rout of Serbia, Kane's opener being followed by strikes from Noni Madueke (35), Ezri Konsa (52), Marc Guehi (75) and Marcus Rashford (90, pen).

Noting the harmonious nature of that latest get together, Tuchel created a flurry of headlines with his squad announcement by sticking with his winning formula. That meant leaving out Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish, a decision that is intriguing for now but could explode down the line if it happens again.

While this is only a friendly, the home nations angle means it'll likely have more eyes on it than Tuesday's away World Cup qualifier in Latvia.

Bellamy keen to play underdog card

Wales boss Craig Bellamy cherrypicked England for this friendly test as he wants to see how his side get on against top-class opposition. That makes sense given that the Welsh take on Belgium in a World Cup qualifier on Monday.

But he also knows a thing or too about psychology, saying in the build-up: "If you were a boxing promoter you wouldn't put us together - it wouldn't be allowed. The simple fact is they don't just have one team. They have two, three, four and France and others have the same.

"They have a player who cost £100m in midfield [Declan Rice], players worth £60m, £80m. It's really top and that's why you want to be up against these boys. You never learn more than when you get your ass kicked." In short, Bellamy is relishing being the underdog against lofty opponents and wants to keep stressing it.

England massive favourites but Wales can make a mark

Of course, there is plenty of truth to Bellamy's stance given the head-to-head record between the two countries.

England have won the last seven meetings between the pair - the most recent the 3-0 victory in the 2022 Qatar World Cup - while Wales have won only one of their last 24 away games against England.

Bellamy has certainly made an excellent impact in Wales' post-Gareth Bale era and they've lost just twice in 12 games since the former striker took over.

True, both came in their last three outings but they fought back from 3-0 down to level at 3-3 in Belgium before Kevin De Bruyne struck a late winner for the hosts and the 1-0 home loss to Canada featured a much-changed Wales team after their first-choice side had eked out a 1-0 win in Kazakhstan a few days earlier. Canada are above Wales in the FIFA World Rankings so that adds further context.

For Thursday night, England are just 2/91.22 for the win, with Wales 11/112.00 and The Draw 9/25.50.

England have certainly been a tough nut to crack under Tuchel but Wales have managed to score goals on the road. They've banked nine in their last six away games and only Turkey have stopped them finding the net in that run.

Which leads me to the first bet - England to win and both teams to score. Rather than that prohibitive 2/91.22 about England, that outcome lifts the hosts to a juicy 23/103.30.

Bellamy has made Wales a far more bolder side and his passion and energy will definitely translate to his men here. England should win but I'm not expecting Wales to go down without a fight.

Harry the goalscorer selection

*Please Note:  Since this preview was published England boss Thomas Tuchel has said that Harry Kane will miss the game with a minor injury.

England have scored in each of their last 16 games across all competitions and Harry Kane at 8/111.73 anytime looks perfectly fine. The Bayern striker has 74 in 109 internationals and, even more impressively, 30 in 38 for the Three Lions at Wembley.

As for Wales, the stats are there for us to try a Harry double.

Harry Wilson is a regular goalscorer for his country and, impressively, has six in his last nine internationals. Use the filter of away matches and it's three in five. He should also be on penalty duties.

The Fulham man is a hefty 6/17.00 to wheel away in celebration at Wembley and the Kane-Wilson goalscorer double pays around 10/111.00.

Now get the Opta stats and three bets for England v Wales