Bundesliga Tips: Differing fortunes for Bayern and Augsburg in Gameweek 13

Robert Lewandowski Bayern
Bayern were frustrated by Augsburg last time out

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the champions aim to rebound from last week's shock loss...

"Augsburg's victory over Bayern Munich last time out was a real surprise, and Markus Weinzierl's side won't be too worried about the xG balance against the champions, but they may find things tough against a Hertha side whose numbers have been better than their home results suggest."

Stuttgart to pull away from danger

Stuttgart v Mainz
Friday, 19:30
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A run of four straight defeats has left Stuttgart in real trouble, and their meeting with Mainz looks like one which could easily go either way. However, the hosts showed last week in Dortmund that they still have some fight in them - with only a late Marco Reus goal denying them a point - and Infogol gives them the narrowest of edges against opponents who weren't entirely convincing against Köln last weekend.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 12.0011/1

Freiburg to recover after successive losses

Bochum v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Freiburg were a little unfortunate to lose to Eintracht Frankfurt last time out, but they will fancy their chances against another bottom-half side in the form of Bochum. Thomas Reis' hosts have been tough to break down at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, averaging just 0.86 xGA per game, but the high-flying visitors are still tipped to just about get the measure of them.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2

Gladbach to continue solid run of form

Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 14:30
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Gladbach pulled Greuther Fürth apart last weekend, as they are capable of doing at Borussia-Park, but one suspects a road game will be a slightly tougher proposition for Adi Hütter's men. That said, opponents Köln are averaging 1.6 xGA per game this season, and an unbeaten home start could fall against visitors who were out of sight within an hour when these teams met here last season.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

Fürth's dismal run to continue

Greuther Fürth v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Hoffenheim were the side against whom bottom side Schalke ended their long wait for a win last season, but Infogol doesn't expect a similar outcome when they travel to face winless Greuther Fürth. The hosts looked flat against Gladbach last week, while Sebastian Hoeneß's visitors showed real quality to beat RB Leipzig, so it would take some turnaround for a home win on Saturday.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

Hertha to bring Augsburg back to earth

Hertha Berlin v Augsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Augsburg's victory over Bayern Munich last time out was a real surprise, and Markus Weinzierl's side won't be too worried about the xG balance against the champions, but they may find things tough against a Hertha side whose numbers have been better than their home results suggest. Last season's meeting ended 2-1 to the hosts thanks to a late Doi Lukebakio penalty, and Infogol anticipates a similarly close game this time out.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 6.6011/2 or 2-1 @ 9.008/1

jovetic-hertha.jpg

Dortmund to squeeze past Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 14:30
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Two of last season's top four are in action at Volkswagen Arena, where the corresponding game last term went the way of the visitors. Both sides are coming off midweek European away days, with Florian Kohfeldt's men granted an extra day's recovery, but Infogol's model expects a tight game to end up going the way of Marco Rose's team following their midweek travails in Lisbon.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2

Bayern to demolish Arminia at home

Bayern Munich v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday, 17:30
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Bayern Munich have a knack for following frustrating defeats with big wins, and Infogol expects nothing different on Saturday. Visitors Arminia claimed victory in their last away game, but are averaging just 0.98 xGF on the road. Even keeping in mind last season's 3-3 draw at the Allianz Arena, this is a meeting between teams in first and 17th and the scoreline is expected to reflect that.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 8.207/1

Frankfurt to prolong winning streak

Eintracht Frankfurt v Union Berlin
Sunday, 14:30
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Eintracht Frankfurt have finally started to kick into gear under Oliver Glasner, winning three straight games away from home, though their form at home still needs to pick up. That could well happen against a Union side much better at home than on the road, and Infogol's model foresees another win for the team who claimed a 5-2 victory in the corresponding fixture back in March.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Leipzig to rebound from Hoffenheim loss

RB Leipzig v Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday, 16:30
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RB Leipzig's unbeaten run came to an end last weekend, but a return to Red Bull Arena will fill Jesse Marsch's side with some hope. Leverkusen's unbeaten away record is broadly out of sync with their xG numbers, with 15 goals from 8.3 xGF across their six games, and the numbers this season have consistently indicated Marsch's men should be higher in the table than they really are.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 8.6015/2


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