Football Bet of the Day: Wolves to hunt down semi spot

Gunners to crash out

Wolfsburg v Arsenal
Thursday 31 March, 17:45

The Parc des Princes was kind to us last night, as our BTTS bet landed within the first 19 minutes, but it wasn't so kind to COVID-hit Bayern Munich. They somehow forced extra time against PSG with a 2-1 win in their UWCL quarter-final, only to concede the decisive goal with eight minutes of the extra period remaining.

We're throwing our lot in with another German side in the same competition tonight, because Wolfsburg are up against Arsenal, and I believe the home side are worth backing.

Wolfsburg are top of the German Bundesliga, a point clear of Bayern. They have dropped just five points across their first 18 games, and they have won all nine of their home matches. In their most recent home game in this competition, they demolished a very good Chelsea side 4-0. Admittedly, Chelsea were distracted by fears of a COVID-19 outbreak at the time, but it was still a stunning result.

Arsenal grabbed a late leveller to draw the first leg 1-1, but their results in the UWCL this term have been a mixed bag. Defeats home and away against Barcelona are no disgrace, but they were also smacked 4-1 at Hoffenheim, who are 13 points behind Wolfsburg in the Frauen Bundesliga.

Arsenal have won just four of their last ten away games in all competitions, and striker Beth Mead is suspended. Wolfsburg were able to rest key players at the weekend like Alexandra Popp and Tabea Wassmuth, and both should start here.

Wolfsburg are incredibly strong at home, and they'll be boosted by playing at the Volkswagen Arena, which is bigger than their usual AOK Stadion. Arsenal's away form is patchy, and I think they'll fall short here. Backing the hosts to win inside 90 minutes at 2.111/10 seems reasonable.