Thursday Football Cheat Sheet: Best bets for Premier League and more

Everton v Crystal Palace: Back the Toffees to secure survival

Everton 1.9520/21 v Crystal Palace 4.67/2, the Draw 3.6553/20
19:45

Paul Higham expects Everton to get the job done and beat Crystal Palace to ensure their Premier League survival.

Paul says: "It was an absolute nightmare for Frank Lampard against Brentford but Everton still have the chance to secure their Premier League survival with a win over Crystal Palace.

"The Toffees do not want to leave it to a final-day trip to Arsenal needing to get something, so Goodison Park will be bouncing again to try and haul their side over the line.

"Everton had taken 10 points from their four previous home games before the Brentford catastrophe, and that run could well keep them up as they've been beyond shocking on the road.

"And Everton are unbeaten in six home games against Palace (W3 D3) and if they can extend that run and grab that vital three points then Goodison will explode with relief."

Paul's bet: Back Everton and both teams to score @ 4.216/5

Port Vale v Swindon: Robins to pick off Clarke's men

Port Vale 2.3411/8 v Swindon 3.953/1, the Draw 3.39/4
19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

Swindon's scoring abilities and momentum at the end of the season should carry them to the playoff final, says Ian Lamont, who goes for another 2-1 win against Port Vale...

Ian Lamont says: "Port Vale seemed to be doing so well in the spring. Eight wins from nine. Before a late season wobble, losing to Bristol Rovers and Newport, Darrell Clarke's men had won six and drawn three in an unbeaten nine games at Vale Park, defeating Mansfield and Sutton, while drawing with Exeter, Northampton and Forest Green. Not bad.

"Sadly, Opta point to a less than great record at home to Swindon, whom they must beat on the night to progress to Wembley. The Valiants lost 3-1 to the Robins at home in January, one of 14 defeats in their past 20 encounters. The visitors have won six of the last times they have been to this venue.

"On the flip side, Port Vale have won all three home games in the playoffs, state the statisticians, stretching back to 1998-1992. I feel certain that the most recent statistic, Swindon winning their past five games is most telling, being that it reflects the past few weeks."

Ian's bet: Back Swindon @ 3.55/2

Aston Villa v Burnley: Collins and Digne the players to follow

Aston Villa 2.111/10 v Burnley 3.814/5, the Draw 3.711/4
20:00
Sky Sports Premier League

Andy Schooler delves into the player props markets for Thursday's Premier League TV game between Aston Villa and Burnley...

Andy says: "Villa could still finish in the top half - something Gerrard will doubtless by emphasising - but to do so this is must-win.

"Sadly for Villa, they've won just two of their last nine - the victories coming against Burnley and now-relegated Norwich - although a more positive slant would say they've lost just one of their last five, and that to Liverpool.

"Gerrard has lost Ezri Konsa to injury for this one; Calum Chambers looks set to come in. It's a defensive change which should boost Burnley's win chance, something the market puts at 3.929/10.

"Given the Clarets have won only two away games all season, it's not a price which sets the pulse racing but it is one which will appeal to those who like to back the more motivated team at this stage of a season.

"Villa's 2.111/10 quote isn't for me either and if pushed in the result market I'd side with the draw at 3.711/4 - a result which would keep Burnley's fate in their own hands with a home game on the final day to come."

Andy's bet: Back Nathan Collins 1+ shot @ 1.834/5

Chelsea v Leicester City: Gloomy duo can still shine

Chelsea 1.412/5 v Leicester 9.417/2, the Draw 5.39/2
20:00

Neither Chelsea nor Leicester City really got what they wanted out of this season, but Kevin Hatchard still believes they can provide some entertainment at Stamford Bridge...

Kevin says: "Neither side really has anything to play for, and Chelsea will be drained after an emotionally and physically demanding cup final against Liverpool. It feels like both sides are keen to get to the summer, and I'm not sure I can trust Chelsea to win this by a big margin.

"I'll give Leicester a +1.5 start on the Asian Handicap here at 1.824/5. Chelsea have only won by multiple goals in just one of their last 12 PL home matches.

"I'm pleasantly surprised to see BTTS trading at 1.9620/21 here. That has paid out in 10 of Chelsea's last 14 top-flight games at Stamford Bridge, and 28 of Leicester's last 35 Premier League outings. With both sides free from pressure, this could be a watchable encounter.

"If Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has been distracted by the Wagatha Christie shenanigans involving his wife Rebekah, he didn't show it in the last couple of games. He has scored four goals across his last two appearances, bagging braces against Watford and Norwich.

"Admittedly, this is a big step up, but he is certainly worth considering to have a shot on target at 1.674/6."

Kevin's bet: Back Leicester City +1.5 @ 1.824/5