Nacional probably won't enjoy their Primeira Liga trip to the Portuguese mainland this afternoon, says Tobias Gourlay
"Nacional are W2-D3-L8 on the road, losing all of their last four away games"
Tondela v CD Nacional Funchal
It was all over very quickly in Genoa last night. In a good way. Goran Pandev scored an 11th-minute equaliser for the hosts to land our BTTS bet. It was 2-2 after Pandev struck again in the 21st minute and that's how it stayed.
We're chasing the sun in Portugal today, where the first of today's four Primeira Liga matches brings rock-bottom Nacional to the mainland for a game with 12th-placed Tondela. We like the odds-against price on the hosts.
Tondela have lost their last two at Estadio Joao Cardoso. However those matches were against top-of-the-table Sporting and second-placed Porto. Nacional are more like the five teams that visited the Joao Cardoso just before then (and who are now between 10th and 17th). Tondela won all five of those games and deserve to be favourites for this one.
In their first season back at the top level, Nacional are W2-D3-L8 on the road, losing all of their last four away games. They've conceded at least twice in all four recent defeats. They themselves haven't scored more than once in an away game all season - there are just eight goals spread across 13 trips - and we don't think they'll keep pace with their hosts this afternoon.
2021 P/L (1pt per bet)
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