Hosts Leicester are odds-on favourites to beat Brighton in the cup tonight, but it could be worth getting behind the visitors, says Tobias Gourlay
"The Foxes are riding high in third, but their league home record is only W5-D1-L5"
Leicester v Brighton
Wednesday 19:30 (Live on BT Sport 2)
At Turf Moor yesterday, Bournemouth took full advantage of Burnley's weakened team. The visitors won 2-0 to bring down our BTTS bet.
We're sticking with the FA Cup for one of this evening's four matches. Our focus is the all-Premier League clash of Leicester and Brighton, even if it is not the sole focus of both managers.
Leicester, chasing a top-four place and maybe more this season, play Liverpool early on Saturday and Brendan Rodgers has said he'll be making changes today. Jamie Vardy, who is on his way back from injury, should feature at some point.
The Foxes are riding high in third, but their league home record is only W5-D1-L5. They are not invulnerable at the King Power Stadium anyway and Rodgers' rotation could weaken them further. We're not sure they should be odds-on favourites for today's game.
Brighton's priority is avoiding relegation and they're making a good go of it right now. Graham Potter's men have recently come into some good form. They are currently unbeaten in five in the Premier League. Since losing at Leicester in the pair's league fixture in mid-December, they are W2-D3-L1 on the road, only succumbing to Manchester City.
Potter hasn't said anything about team changes for tonight's game. Brighton don't play again until Saturday night, so the need is arguably less pressing than it is for Leicester. If the Seagulls go with a strong team this evening, we're happy to back them to avoid defeat in 90 minutes at an odds-against price.
2021 P/L (1pt per bet)