Football Bet of the Day: The kids will be alright

Weakened Rams can still progress

Chorley v Derby
Saturday 09 January, 12:15
Live on BT Sport 1

I've always liked Roy Hodgson, but the Crystal Palace boss did us few favours last night as he selected a weakened team in a 1-0 defeat at Wolves. That saw our BTTS bet go down in flames, and this is turning into a frustrating week.

We now turn our attention to what is now a rather bizarre FA Cup tie between National League North side Chorley and Championship outfit Derby County. A COVID-19 outbreak in the Rams' camp means that they'll be forced to field what is effectively a youth side, and even manager Wayne Rooney will be absent.

Chorley deserve respect, having come from behind to dump out league sides Wigan and Peterborough so far. It's a cup run which Chorley boss Jamie Vermiglio freely admits has saved the club from financial ruin, and there is a great opportunity to progress to the last 32.

The market is certainly backing Chorley, with the COVID-19 announcement having seen their price to win in the Match Odds market plunge to 1.9620/21. However, I think we can attack that price. Yes, Derby's side will be inexperienced, and this will be a big psychological test. However, as Vermiglio himself has pointed out, they will be fitter, as they train on a full-time basis.

There's also a mental aspect. Chorley have played the role of underdogs, and now many people will see them as favourites, and this will feel like a golden chance that they daren't let slip away. That applies a pressure they wouldn't have anticipated. It's also worth remembering that Chorley are a mid-table side in National League North, with just two wins collected from five home matches.

I feel like the market has over-reacted a touch here, so I'll lay Chorley at 1.9620/21.