Football Bet of the Day: Go Baek to basics and oppose the hosts

Rock-bottom side to struggle again

Stabaek v Lillestrom
Wednesday July 21, 18:00

We've had enough bitter pills recently to start a very bad pharmacy, and another arrived last night in Brazil. In-form Guarani dominated their game against Sampaio Correia, but had to settle for a goalless draw.

We'll skip back to Europe, because Stabaek are taking on Lillestrom, and I fancy the visitors to shine in attack.

Lillestrom have made a strong start to the campaign, racking up 18 points from their first 11 games. They have put together a seven-match unbeaten run, winning four and drawing three of those games. In five of those seven outings, they have scored at least twice. Importantly for our purposes, they have the highest average of corners won per game in the Eliteserien, forcing over seven corners per match.

Stabaek are leaking plenty of goals, and are bottom of the standings. They have won just one of their 11 matches, and have conceded 24 goals. They have conceded at least twice in their last eight games. If you look at how many corners they have conceded per game, the average is 6.18.

We can use the OddsOnThat section of the Sportsbook to back Lillestrom to score at least two goals and force at least six corners at 4/1. Given the respective form of the two sides, and the trends when it comes to corners, that looks overpriced.