Football Bet of the Day: Pirates to come up short

Hosts to feel the pressure

St. Pauli v Nürnberg
Friday 29 April, 17:30

We fell victim to one of the worst things in tipping last night, the consolation goal that ruins a bet. Our boys Vikingur Reykjavik were flying, 4-0 up, and we were flying with them. However, Keflavik's 92nd-minute gesture of defiance destroyed our Bet Builder.

We leave Iceland, and immerse ourselves in the chaos of the Bundesliga 2. promotion race. Every year, a clutch of clubs are still in the mix to finish in the top two or three, and this season is no exception. Just seven points separate the leaders Werder Bremen from sixth-placed Nürnberg with three matchdays left, so anyone can still take an automatic place, or make third spot and secure as playoff.

Two of the promotion contenders face off in northern Germany tonight, as St. Pauli take on Nürnberg, and I think the hosts are too short at odds-on.

Because the teams' form at this stage is so variable, I'm wary of any side that is odds-on to win a game, and cult club Pauli are no exception. The Hamburg-based club has won just one of the last six games, picking up just six points in that spell. In their last two home matches they have drawn with Werder Bremen and lost to Darmstadt.

Nürnberg have won just one of the last five, but their recent away performances have been decent. They drew 1-1 at the leaders Werder, and won at both Hansa Rostock and Hannover. They have lost just three of their last ten games.

I won't lie to you here. Nürnberg are one of those sides that throws in a nightmare every so often, and they collapsed against Sandhausen in their last game, losing 4-2 from 2-1 up. However, I don't think there's much to choose between these teams in terms of quality, and the pressure is getting to everyone. On that basis, St. Pauli shouldn't be as short as 1.9420/21 in the Match Odds market, so I would lay them and get two of the three outcomes on your side.

Alternatively, you could use the Bet Builder to back Nürnberg/Draw and Over 0.5 First-Half Goals at 2.486/4. There has been a first-half goal in Nürnberg's last 17 games, and both sides need to go for it.