We're starting our weekend in the Portuguese capital, and Kev's expecting an evening of tension as top plays bottom.
"13 of Sporting's last 16 league games have featured fewer than three goals, and the pressure of the title race has been getting to them recently."
Title pressure to keep the score down
Sporting v Nacional
Saturday 01 May, 20:30
We must have smashed a mirror, or seen a black cat, or walked under a ton of ladders without realising, because RB Leipzig were somewhat luckless on our behalf last night. They had to wait until extra-time to win their DFB Cup semi-final 2-1 against Werder Bremen, but in the 90 minutes they hit the woodwork three times, and Bremen keeper Jiri Pavlenka was in outstanding form.
We'll head to Portugal now, because leaders Sporting are hoping to take another big step towards winning the Primeira Liga title, as they face rock-bottom Nacional.
Sporting are still six points clear of Porto in the title race, but they have been suffering a major wobble. They have drawn three of their last five games, and it was only an 81st-minute strike from Matheus Nunes that secured a 1-0 win at Braga last time out. Incredibly, Ruben Amorim's side is still unbeaten in the league, and they are just five games away from posting an invincible season.
Nacional aren't yet doomed to relegation, but they are bottom of the table with five matches left. A 1-0 win over Vitoria Guimaraes ended a run of eight defeats, but they have lost their last four away matches, conceding at least twice in all of those outings.
Sporting are massive favourites here, but the tension might drive down the number of goals we get. 13 of Sporting's last 16 league games have featured fewer than three goals, and if the league leaders get an early advantage, I don't expect them to take many unnecessary risks.
Under 2.5 Goals is 2.0811/10 here, and that's what I'll go for.
2021 FBOTD P/L
Points Staked: 61
Points Returned: 48.4
P/L: -12.6 points
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