Football Bet of the Day: Don't expect Sirius to shine bright

Strugglers to tighten up

Sirius v Degerfors
Saturday 24 July, 16:30

Despite having a weakened line-up, and despite having not won a home game so far this season, Londrina netted a late goal to stop Remo's three-match winning streak last night. Remo were denied a clear penalty on their way to a 1-0 defeat, so we have two reasons to be annoyed with life.

Huffing and puffing, we storm to Sweden, because Sirius are up against Degerfors. Both teams are in relegation danger, and both are in need of a defensive reboot.

Sirius have just been smacked 4-0 at Malmo and 5-1 at Djurgarden, and they have leaked 23 goals in 11 matches. Seven of those games have featured at least three goals, including six of the last seven.

Degerfors have just lost 5-1 at Hammarby and 5-0 at home to Malmo, and four of their last five matches in the Allsvenskan have contained three goals or more.

However, it's also worth considering that both attacks are misfiring. Sirius have netted just 12 goals, while Degerfors are only a goal better off.

There are a couple of ways we could play this, but something that struck me was that these teams are very low in the rankings when it comes to winning corners. Sirius only win 3.6 per match, while Degerfors collect just 3.7.

I'll use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to combine an Under 10.5 Corners bet with an Under 4.5 Goals wager. That gives us a healthy combined price of 2.0421/20. Sirius's matches feature an average of 8.9 total corners, and that figure is 10.1 for Degerfors. This is unlikely to be a thriller.