Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW1

Aaron Ramsey Juventus
Juventus midfielder Aaron Ramsey

Who will be this weekend's winners and losers in Serie A? Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions as 14 teams get their seasons underway...

"Reigning champions Juventus weren't entirely convincing in defending their title last season, but they'll be determined to get this year's effort off to a fast start with their Champions League disappointment still stinging."

Fiorentina to get off to a winning start

Fiorentina v Torino
Saturday, 17:00
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Fiorentina were better than their position suggested last season, and Giuseppe Iachini has strengthened his squad with a couple of smart free transfer pick-ups. Infogol gives the Viola a 49% chance of kicking off with a victory, after their last two home games brought six points and no goals conceded. One of those wins was against this weekend's opponents Torino, who have been active in the market themselves but are expected to fall short in Tuscany.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Roma to kick off season with a narrow victory

Verona v Roma
Saturday, 19:45
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Roma will be disappointed to have missed out on the top four last season, and with teams strengthening around them an opening day win would be a big boost. They have a tough test at Verona, who posted solid underlying numbers to secure a top-half finish last time out. With Paulo Fonseca adding the experience of World Cup winner Pedro, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan signing a permanent deal, the Giallorossi can eke out a narrow win.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

Napoli to kick on under Gattuso

Parma v Napoli
Sunday, 11:30
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Napoli showed plenty of promise under Rino Gattuso at the end of last season, and have added firepower with the signing of Victor Osimhen from Lille for a club record fee. They should be too strong for a Parma side who finished mid-table last season but were 17th in Infogol's xG table and finished the season averaging 1.82 xGA per game across their last six fixtures. One of those was a narrow win against Napoli, but we shouldn't expect a repeat.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2

Genoa to take all three points against newcomers Crotone

Genoa v Crotone
Sunday, 14:00
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After leaving it late to secure their Serie A status for another year, Genoa will be thanking the fixture computer for handing them a winnable opener against newly promoted Crotone. Infogol has both teams to score as a virtual coin-flip, but Giovanni Stroppa's side found the net 63 times in their promotion campaign so will fancy their chances of at least getting on the scoresheet against one of the weaker defences in last season's top flight.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1


Sassuolo to outpunch Cagliari in goal-filled meeting

Sassuolo v Cagliari
Sunday, 17:00
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Sassuolo's attack caused problems for plenty of high flyers last season as they posted a comfortable top-half finish, and more of the same can be expected against a Cagliari defence which outperformed its xGA by 15 goals last season according to Infogol's model. The hosts have strengthened at the back over the last 12 months, but no one would rule out Cagliari at least finding the net with BTTS at 59%.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1

Juve to start with a bang against Sampdoria

Juventus v Sampdoria
Sunday, 19:45
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Reigning champions Juventus weren't entirely convincing in defending their title last season, but they'll be determined to get this year's effort off to a fast start with their Champions League disappointment still stinging. Opponents Sampdoria performed better than their 2019/20 relegation flirtation suggests, showing marked improvement in results under Claudio Ranieri, but everything in Infogol's model points to a comfortable home victory in Turin.

Back the 3-0 @ 9.008/1

Milan to pick up where they left off in August

AC Milan v Bologna
Monday, 19:45
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Milan's form at the end of last season was enough to earn Stefano Pioli a proper crack at the job, and he has the squad to launch a top-four push this season. In case you hadn't guessed, this means they're strong favourites to see off Bologna, with Infogol giving them a 63% chance of victory. The Rossoneri were dominant in last season's 5-1 win, and there's little to suggest there won't be a repeat, though Bologna have caused upsets before.

Back the 3-0 @ 13.50


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