Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: Best bets for FA Cup final and more

Sheffield United v Nottingham Forest: Few goals fancied in first leg fixture

Sheffield United 2.3211/8 v Nottingham Forest 3.7511/4, the Draw 3.211/5
15:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Two Championship giants meet at Bramall Lane for their play-off first leg and there could not be more at stake...

Mark O'Haire says: "Both Championship clashes between Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest this season ended in 1-1 stalemates, with the Tricky Trees netting late equalisers in both games (83rd and 90th minute respectively). Meanwhile, the Blades are now unbeaten in their last eight home meetings across all competitions with the Reds going back to April 2004 (W3-D5-L0).

"Sheffield United finished with a flourish, pocketing three successive league victories after bagging only three triumphs in their previous 11 encounters. The Blades have largely built their promotion challenge upon a strong record at Bramall Lane under Paul Heckingbottom's watch, returning W10-D3-L1 here under current management.

"Nottingham Forest have been transformed since Steve Cooper arrived in September. The former Swansea boss has guided the Reds from rock-bottom into promotion contenders, returning the most league points during that sample (W22-D10-L6). The Tricky Trees have been turned over twice in 17 (W11-D4-L2) and lost just four road trips since September.

Marks's bet: Back the Draw and Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.55/2

Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich: Champions to make final statement

Wolfsburg 5.49/2 v Bayern Munich 1.584/7, the Draw 5.24/1
14:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

Bayern have won 12 of their last 13 games against Wolfsburg in the top flight, and have lost just one of the last 25, so our Bundesliga expert expects three points for the champions.

Kevin says: "It's been a terrible season for Wolfsburg. Last season they proudly finished in the top four, but Dutchman Mark van Bommel proved to be a wretched replacement for Frankfurt-bound coach Oliver Glasner, and he lasted just nine league games before he was replaced by Florian Kohfeldt. Opinion is still divided regarding Kohfeldt's true level of coaching acumen, but he has kept the team in the top flight, which didn't seem nailed-on earlier in the campaign.

"Bayern have been strolling recently, having secured the title with victory over Borussia Dortmund in Der Klassiker a few weeks ago. They lost at Mainz and drew with Stuttgart, but they always seem to shine in this fixture, and I think we'll see a comfortable win for the table-toppers. Robert Lewandowski will chase goals (if you believe what you read, it could be his farewell appearance, as he is mightily annoyed about Bayern's failed pursuit of Erling Haaland), Thomas Müller will chase assists, and I expect Wolfsburg's defensive deficiencies to be exposed."

Kevin's bet: Back Bayern Munich -1.5 @ 2.26/5

FA Cup Final Tips: It'll be tight and tense at Wembley

Chelsea 3.7511/4 v Liverpool 2.186/5, the Draw 3.613/5
16:45
Live on BBC1

Having played out a fascinating League Cup final, which Liverpool won on penalties, Chelsea and the Reds do battle again at Wembley in the FA Cup final. Kevin Hatchard believes it'll be another nail-biting affair.

Kevin says: "All three of the clubs' meetings this seasons have been draws, and the League Cup clash between them at Wembley in February went all the way to penalties.

"Liverpool have outperformed Chelsea over the course of the season, but that doesn't mean that Chelsea aren't a dangerous side that can push them really hard at a neutral venue.

"I'll back Chelsea/Draw in the Double Chance market (Home or Draw) at 1.855/6. We get a winner if Chelsea win in 90 minutes or the final goes to extra time. It may well be that Liverpool are too strong for Chelsea in the end, but this is a play on price, as I just think Klopp's side are a bit too short.

"Two of the clubs' three meetings this season have featured fewer than three goals, and Under 2.5 Goals is an attractive price here at 2.01/1. Chelsea's two games against Manchester City in the Premier League this term featured just one goal apiece, as did their Champions League final meeting last season. Chelsea's Club World Cup final against Palmeiras was level at 1-1 after 90 minutes."

Kevin's bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.01/1

FA Cup Final: Where Liverpool v Chelsea will be won

Alex Keble provides the Cup final tactical analysis and explains where he thinks Chelsea v Liverpool will be won and lost...

Alex Keble says: "The midfield battle could be definitive for Liverpool, chiefly because they tend to struggle against a back three/five, as we saw in the recent 1-1 draw with Tottenham. Klopp's wide forwards like to operate between full-back and centre-back, a space shut down by a back five, while in Tuchel's system Chelsea's wing-backs will also be free to push up to meet Liverpool's full-backs.

"Thiago Alcantara is set to play against Chelsea for the first time. His incredible technique and capacity to break the lines with a quick forward pass will be very useful against Tuchel's two-man midfield, especially if things are clogged up for Liverpool in the final third. His head-to-head with Kante will be fascinating to watch."

Alex's bet: Back Liverpool @ 2.01/1

Espanyol v Valencia: Hosts to get first win in six

Espanyol 2.6213/8 v Valencia 2.962/1, the Draw 3.4549/20
17:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

There are a couple of matches in La Liga on Saturday and Tom Victor has consulted the xG data to recommend a score tip for the contest in Catalonia.

Tom Victor says: "More than a month has passed since either of these sides won a game, and Infogol can't find much to choose between them. However, the hosts have a slight edge, and are chasing what would be a 10th home league win on their top-flight return.

"It would also represent a first league double of the season, with Valencia handing Vicente Moreno's team their only away victory in La Liga."

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under

Tom's bet: Back 2-0 @ 15.0014/1

Mansfield v Northampton: Clough's side to put noses in front

Mansfield 2.186/5 v Northampton 3.6553/20, the Draw 3.1511/5
19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

Statistics point to a home win for the Stags in their League Two playoff semi-final first leg, as our fourth tier expert explains...

Ian Lamont says: "Managers are fond of saying the table doesn't lie at the end of the season. Jon Brady might argue against that, after winning on the final day only to be deposed from automatic promotion by an astonishing scoreline elsewhere: Bristol Rovers' 7-0 win over Scunthorpe.

"The Cobblers have contacted the EFL about Scunthorpe's line-up, which included seven teenagers but only three changes from their previous game. No complaint has been made, chairman Kelvin Thomas insisting his comments to the EFL were about the "competition going forward".

"Nonetheless, the hullabaloo of the freak result is a pointless distraction from the task now in front of Northampton. Which is to pick themselves up, having thought that any sort of win at Barrow would earn them automatic promotion. The Sixfields side have been hovering around the top three all season..

"Mansfield, meanwhile, won their first two games of the season, but then didn't take another victory until the very end of October, when they were second bottom. Suffering with Covid related absences plus injuries, they then managed to haul themselves into the promotion picture. Nigel Clough is delighted with how their "rollercoaster" season has turned out."

Ian's bet: Back Mansfield @ 2.265/4