Jake Osgathorpe is back for GW2 of the Premier League, using Infogol data to pick out the best goalscorer, booking and Same Game Multi bets for the highlight games...
"He racked up 2 xG last weekend, and throughout 19/20 averaged 0.64 xG/avg match, showing that he consistently gets on the end of good scoring chances."
Fernandes to lead United again
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
Goalscorer: Bruno Fernandes to score anytime @ 13/10
Bruno Fernandes was a catalyst for Manchester United last season, with his arrival providing a spark and drive in midfield that helped them surge into the top four. He averaged 0.49 xG/avg match in the Premier League last season, boosted by the numerous penalties he took and scored, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him being the liveliest United player on this pitch this weekend. The fact he is on penalties and plays for a team that racks up so many is huge for a goalscorer bet, but he also breaks lines to get on chances, so the 13/10 looks generous to me.
Card: Luka Milivojevic to be booked @ 15/8
Last season, Milivojevic was booked 12 times in 31 appearances, and committed 1.75 fouls/avg match. If he gets the nod to start, he will likely be contesting the tricky pair of Paul Pogba and Bruno Fernandes, so I like his chances of picking up another card.
Same Game Multi: Manchester United win and Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.9110/11
Manchester United should get the win here, but I think they could be a little laboured, leading to a close scoreline. Under 3.5 goals looks fair, as I can't see Palace creating much or troubling David De Gea.
Willian-mania to continue
Arsenal vs West Ham
Goalscorer: Willian to score anytime @ 15/8
It was a dream debut for Willian last weekend, as he helped himself to two assists in a comfortable 3-0 win. He looked right at home in the Arsenal set up, and really did perform well. He racked up 0.83 xG last weekend, getting in good scoring positions, and that was something he did well at Chelsea too from a wide position (0.27 xG/avg match 19/20). He looks over-priced to me to hit the net.
Card: Ryan Fredericks to be booked @ 15/8
Fredericks obliged last weekend with a card against Newcastle, and I think he could have a tough job on his hands again. Arsenal's key player, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, will be playing on the left, making out to in runs in between Fredericks and his centre-half, with the cavalry arriving in the form of Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Kieran Tierney. He has his work cut out. The three fouls he made last weekend could be replicated this time around.
Same Game Multi: Arsenal to win, Under 4.5 goals and Willian 2+ shots @ 2.546/4
I like Arsenal's chances of making it two wins from two against a West Ham team who were poor against Newcastle, though I can't see it being a trouncing, with Under 4.5 goals highly likely. Willian averaged 1.6 shots/avg match last season, and registered two shots last weekend, and I can see him having a few pops this weekend too.
Salah to help Reds to a result
Chelsea vs Liverpool
Goalscorer: Mohamed Salah to score anytime @ 6/5
Fresh off a hat-trick last weekend, it's strange to see Salah - Liverpool's penalty taker - available to back at odds against for a goal in this match. He racked up 2 xG last weekend, and throughout 19/20 averaged 0.64 xG/avg match, showing that he consistently gets on the end of good scoring chances. He is an elite player in the Premier League, and I fancy him to add to his tally against his former club.
Card: Jorginho to be booked @ 21/10
Jorginho is likely to be playing as the deepest Chelsea midfielder this weekend if given the nod, and that spells trouble for the Italian who was booked 10 times last season. He will be the man tasked with counter-acting the Liverpool counter-attack, which could lead to a fast transition foul that usually has the name of 'take one for the team' - also known as a certain yellow. His lack of pace should find him out in these situations, and he looks a fair price.
Same Game Multi: Liverpool or Draw, BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.57
I like Liverpool's chances in this game. Chelsea didn't impress me against Brighton, racking up just 0.6 non-penalty xG, while Liverpool's result was skewed thanks to a clinical display from Leeds (3 goals from 0.33 xG). We will see goals and chances here, so BTTS and Over 2.5 are both likely.
Wolves to trouble City
Wolves vs Manchester City
Goalscorer: Raul Jimenez to score anytime @ 23/10
It may seem obvious to pick Wolves' main striker to score, but at this price, its too good to turn down. He was brilliant last season (0.51 xG/avg match), and picked up from where he left off, scoring a fantastic goal against Sheffield United while getting on the end of plenty of other chances (1.29 xG). I fancy Wolves to cause City issues and grab a goal or two, meaning the Mexican looks over-priced on Monday.
Card: Marcal to be booked @ 7/2
Marcal had a solid debut last week for Wolves, helping to keep a clean sheet before collecting a very late yellow card after a 91st minute foul. He looked assured against a limited Sheffield United side, but will be fully tested this Monday. The ex-Lyon defender committed 1.71 fouls/avg match in the shortened Ligue 1 campaign, and looks a big priced compared to other players on both sides.
Same Game Multi: Wolves or Draw, BTTS and Raul Jimenez 1+ shot on target @ 4.69
As I mentioned in my correct score column, and on this weeks Football...Only Bettor, I like Wolves' chances of avoiding defeat at Molineux, with Nuno's side underestimated again in a big game. They have a great record against Manchester City since arriving back in the Premier League (2W, 1D, 1L), and I expect that to continue, with both teams scoring. Jimenez averaged 1.19 shots on target/avg match last season, and I can see him testing Ederson at least once.
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Manchester United vs Crystal Palace - Manchester United win and Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.9110/11
Arsenal vs West Ham - Arsenal to win, Under 4.5 goals and Willian 2+ shots @ 2.546/4
Chelsea vs Liverpool - Liverpool or Draw, BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.57
Wolves vs Manchester City - Wolves or Draw, BTTS and Raul Jimenez 1+ shot on target @ 4.69