Northern Ireland v Lithuania: A sobering night at Windsor Park

Northern Ireland v Lithuania
Friday 12 November, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports

Irish have to look to the future

Northern Ireland saw their World Cup qualification hopes dashed in the last round of Group C fixtures, as they lost to both Switzerland and Bulgaria.

Ian Baraclough's side are back on home soil for their final two qualifiers, but with Italy coming up last, they will be keen to win this one and keep their chances of finishing third alive.

There have been mitigating circumstances for their poor performance in Group C, as Baraclough has routinely been without some of his more experienced players.

Jonny Evans hasn't been involved much due to injury, but he is back now, and he will take his place in defence. Jamal Lewis also returns from a one match ban, but Connor Washington and Josh Magennis will likely keep their places in attack.

A difficult campaign for Lithuania

Lithuania are bottom of the group having taken just three points from a possible 21. They have lost six of their seven, and this is their final chance to pick up their second victory.

Their sole win came last month at home to Bulgaria, but they couldn't build on it as they were beaten 4-0 at home by Switzerland three days later.

In the reverse fixture against Norn, they were beaten 4-1, but then new manager, Valdas Ivanauskas, wasn't in the dugout due to Covid-19. He will be in Belfast for this clash though.

Be wary about backing the favourites

The hosts are the 1.4840/85 favourites to win this game, with the draw at 4.57/2 and a Lithuania win at 9.08/1,

Other than the surprise 3-1 victory against Bulgaria, the visitors have shown very little in this qualifying campaign, and their results in other competitions have been poor too.

New manager, Ivanauskas, hasn't really improved the team, and while he has had limited games, I just can't see them taking the points at Windsor Park.

I am always nervous about Northern Ireland's ability to win matches though, especially since Michael O'Neill left. At the prices they don't represent much value at all to me, but the draw is tempting at 4.57/2.

The Irish just don't score enough goals for my liking, so if the Lithuanians can keep it relatively tight, the draw could be worth a small bet - even if it's just with a view to cash-out at some point during the match.

Hard to see where the goals will come from

I do quite like a bet in the Over/Under 2.5 Goal Market, as Unders is trading at around the 1.814/5 mark, and that seems too big to me.

I have already mentioned Ireland's struggles in front of goal, and their last two home qualifiers have finished 0-0. Lithuania have only scored four in seven qualifiers, and the hosts have only got five in six.

One thing that Baraclough's side are good at though, and that is defending. They have conceded just seven goals, and they will fancy their chances of another clean sheet now that Evans is back in the fold.

Bet Builder

I am going with a 24/1 Bet Builder on the Betfair Sportsbook for this fixture. The selections are Under 2.5 Goals, Under 3.5 Cards, Under 10.5 Corners and Jonny Evans to have 1+ Shot on Target - which he will hopefully get from one of the 10 corners or less.