La Liga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW1

Unai Emery Villarreal
Unai Emery has been confirmed as Villarreal's new manager
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Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions for the opening weekend of the 2020/21 season...

"Unai Emery's side have added to their ranks, and there will be plenty of interest in how on-loan Real Madrid man Takefusa Kubo does at a top-half team."

Eibar to start with a win against Celta

Eibar v Celta Vigo
Saturday, 15:00
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Neither Eibar nor Celta covered themselves in glory last season, with both leaving it late to secure their La Liga status for another year. José Luis Mendilibar's hosts were broadly solid at Ipurua last season, though, and can use home advantage against opponents who won just one of their last 11 on the road last season and drew a blank against relegated Espanyol on the final day. Infogol's model anticipates a low-scoring affair, but Eibar have the edge with a 42% chance of victory.

Back the 2-0 @ [12.00]

Granada to shut out Athletic at Los Cármenes

Granada v Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, 17:30
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Diego Martínez's Granada finished last season strongly, winning three of their last four games to earn a Europa League qualifying spot, and the permanent addition of impressive loanee Maxime Gonalons should help this time out. Their visitors are without the now-retired Aritz Aduriz for the first time since 2012, and while they won't anticipate another 4-0 defeat - as was the case in last season's closer - this should go the same way as the last meeting back in July.

Back the 2-0 @ [15.50]

Osasuna to hold new boys Cadiz to a draw

Cádiz v Osasuna
Saturday, 20:00
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Last season's Segunda champions Cádiz have made a number of additions to their squad, with veteran goalscorer Álvaro Negredo one of the standout names, and have the luxury of a home opener against an Osasuna side which blew hot and cold last season but finished strongly. There's almost nothing to choose between the sides according to Infogol's model, with the hosts holding a 35% chance of victory and the visitors at 36%, so this could go either way.

Back the 1-1 @ [6.00]

Battle of new managers to finish all square

Alavés v Real Betis
Sunday, 13:00
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Both Alavés and Real Betis have new men in the dugout, with Pablo Machin going up against Manuel Pellegrini. There was little between the sides in last season's table, with a difference of just two points, and a card-heavy game at Mendizorrotza last season ended all square. As the new bosses attempt to find their feet, Infogol's model gives the home side a 36% chance of victory while Pellegrini's visitors have a near-identical 37% shot, so a repeat isn't out of the question.

Back the 1-1 @ [6.20]


La Real to start strongly at Valladolid

Valladolid v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 15:00
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Real Sociedad have lost one of last season's star men, with Martin Odegaard returning to parent club Real Madrid, but have been buoyed by the summer arrival of David Silva. They should have too much for a Valladolid side in the lower reaches of Infogol's xG table last season, and now without Mohammed Salisu after the centre-back moved to Southampton. We're anticipating a low-scoring affair, with just a 37% chance of more than 2.5 goals, but the visitors are expected to take all three points.

Back the 0-2 @ [15.0]

Promoted Huesca to be given lesson by Villarreal

Villarreal v Huesca
Sunday, 17:30
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Huesca will want to improve on their last La Liga season, when they conceded 65 goals en route to a 19th-place finish, but they face a tough fixture first up with a trip to Villarreal. Unai Emery's side have added to their ranks, and there will be plenty of interest in how on-loan Real Madrid man Takefusa Kubo does at a top-half team. The hosts have a 57% chance of victory, based on Infogol's model, and should have too much for their visitors on the opening weekend.

Back the 2-1 @ [8.80]

Gracia to start Valencia stint with a win

Valencia v Levante
Sunday, 20:00
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Javi Gracia doesn't have an enviable task at Valencia, having inherited a squad which goes into the new season having lost the likes of Ferran Torres, Dani Parejo, Francis Coquelin and Rodrigo, but the former Watford and Málaga boss has a winnable game first up against Levante. Gracia's men have a 46% chance of victory in the derby game, based on Infogol's model, and their neighbours' 12 away defeats in 2019/20 point to a home victory.

Back the 2-0 @ [12.5]


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Tom Victor,

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