We're headed to Iceland in search of entertainment, and Kev thinks two struggles can strike a few sparks.
"Four of Keflavik's five league games have featured at least four goals, and Leiknir aren't defending well either."
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.4529/20
Dithering defences to suffer
Keflavik v Leiknir Reykjavik
Thursday May 12, 20:15
Despite taking the lead late in the first half and laying siege to the Vitesse goal late on, our boys Fortuna Sittard slipped to an agonising 2-1 defeat last night.
We'll drown our sorrows in Iceland, because the top-flight Urvalsdeild is a league that's often good for goals, and I think we'll see plenty in the clash between Keflavik and Leiknir Reykjavik.
Keflavik are bottom of the table after taking just a point from their five games so far, and four of those matches have featured at least five goals. They are conceding an average of three goals per game, and if you stretch back into last season, they have leaked 14 goals across their last five league outings at HS Orku Vollurinn.
All five of Leiknir Reykjavik's games in the League Cup featured at least four goals, including a 3-2 at Keflavik in February. That competition isn't a perfect guide, but Leiknir's defensive issues have continued into the league, as they have managed just one clean sheet in their four top-flight matches this season.
Leiknir's away record in the Urvalsdeild is absolutely atrocious. They haven't won an away match at this level since 2015, and they have collected just five points from the 60 available on their travels. Across those 20 away games, they have leaked 38 goals at nearly two per match.
I'll go for Over 3.5 Goals here at 2.4529/20.