We're wrapping up the week in Brazil's top flight, and Kev's on the hunt for an odds-against winner.
"Nine of Goias' last 12 home games have featured three goals or more, and neither of these teams can defend effectively."
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.3411/8
Basement battle should be fun
Goias v Vasco da Gama
Sunday 01 November, 23:30
In a whole week of slaps in the face, last night's in Bologna was one of the most brutal. Our boys Cagliari led 1-0 and 2-1, but somehow contrived to lose 3-2, taking us down with them. We hope for a happy ending in Brazil, because we're taking in the basement battle between Goias and Vasco da Gama.
Vasco da Gama is one of the big names in Brazilian football, but they are on the slide. The Rio club is struggling badly near the foot of the Serie A table, largely because they can't defend. Vasco have lost their last five league matches, and have conceded at least twice in every single one. Six of their last nine games in the league have featured at least three goals.
Goias are one of the few teams in the division with a worse defensive record than Vasco. They have leaked 30 goals in 16 games, and 15 of their last 21 outings at this level have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land. They haven't won a game since mid-September, and they are bottom of the table, in danger of being cut adrift.
Nine of Goias' last 12 home games at this level have featured three goals or more, and with odds of 2.3411/8, that's the way I'm heading tonight.