Football Bet of the Day: Baltic blockade won't be breached

Visitors to cruise to victory

Gibraltar v Latvia
Tuesday 16 November, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports

It was a case of right result, wrong score-line in Albania last night, as the hosts edged out Andorra 1-0. Given that Albania had 19 shots and 76% possession, we're entitled to be a little sore.

Tonight we're off to see another of the European section's little scrappers, as Gibraltar take on Latvia.

Latvia held Norway to a potentially damaging 0-0 draw last time out, and since they were shredded 7-1 by Germany in a June friendly, they have certainly tightened up. They haven't conceded more than twice in any of their last seven matches, and they have leaked just eight goals in total.

Gibraltar shouldn't give the Baltic side too many problems, given that they have failed to score in their last four home matches. While the Nations League has shown that Los Llanis are heading in the right direction, they still have a long way to go to be truly competitive, and they lost 3-1 to Latvia in the reverse fixture.

I think Latvia will prove too strong for the hosts here, so there are a couple of ways we can play this. We can either back Latvia to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 1.834/5, or we can sacrifice the 2-1 away win to back Latvia to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 at 2.3811/8 on the Sportsbook.

We're getting half a point extra just to avoid a 2-1 success for the visitors, and I don't expect the game to be that open. Gibraltar have lost 3-0 in three of their last four home matches, and while Latvia are a cut above their opponents, I can't see them running riot here. Latvia have scored multiple goals in just two of their last 12 games.