Football Bet of the Day: Don't expect a Dusseldorf demolition

Germany might not sign off in style

Germany v Latvia
Monday 07 June, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

Romelu Lukaku delivered for the Red Devils of Belgium last night, but it was Croatia who were the real devils for our chum Tobias, as their failure to score in a 1-0 defeat nixed his BTTS bet.

We'll start the week with some international action too. Germany are up against Latvia, and I'm not sure the market has got this one quite right in terms of the relative strengths of the two sides.

Germany go into Euro 2020 with big question marks hanging over them, and the imminent departure of Bundestrainer Joachim Löw can't come soon enough for some fans. Although the World Cup winner has seen sense by restoring Thomas Müller and Mats Hummels to his squad after a needless period of absence, there is little faith that he knows what his best formation and best starting XI is.

Germany have picked up a nasty habit of giving away preventable, cheap goals, and the adoption of a back three hasn't really helped matters.

The sensible, pragmatic choice would be to revert to a back four and ask Bayern superstar Joshua Kimmich to take one for the team and play at right-back, but that seems unlikely at present. Kimmich's regular midfield partner Leon Goretzka is currently injured, and looks likely to miss the opening Group F game against France.

Germany were deeply unimpressive in the recent World Cup qualifiers. A 3-0 win over a poor Iceland side flattered them, they edged out Romania 1-0 and then lost at home to North Macedonia. In the first warm-up game for Euro 2020, a 1-1 draw with Denmark, there were familiar problems. Germany lacked a clinical edge in front of goal, moved the ball too slowly and gave away a goal with some chaotic defending.

Löw has overseen just five wins in the last 12 games, and there hasn't been a German victory by more than three goals since 2019. Latvia are of course expected to be fairly obliging opponents in Düsseldorf, but they only lost 2-0 to the Netherlands in the World Cup qualifiers, and they held Turkey to a 3-3 draw. They haven't lost a game by more than three goals since a 6-0 hammering by Austria in September 2019.

Germany will be conscious of injuries ahead of the big kick-off, so they won't play in top gear, and this isn't a side that is clicking in attack at present. I'll give Latvia a three-and-a-half goal start on the Asian Handicap here at 2.0421/20, which means we only lose if Germany win by four goals or more.