Copa Libertadores Tips: Palmeiras to frustrate fellow Brazilians

Palmeiras to learn from their mistakes

Athletico PR v Palmeiras
Wednesday, 01:30

The last time Palmeiras and Athletico PR met, it was a highly frustrating evening for the current Copa Libertadores champions.

Playing at the beginning of July in Serie A, Palmeiras fell to a 2-0 defeat, beaten by a deep cross into the box in the first half before a controversial penalty sealed the points for Athletico.

Palmeiras finished the match with 35 shots, nine corners, 71% possession and 554 passes, which, compared to their opponents 229, shows utter dominance doesn't always work out how it should.

However, watching the game back, on any other night, Palmeiras would have easily secured at least a point from the game.

Little over six weeks later, Palmeiras have the opportunity to rectify their mistakes and take a crucial step forward to a potential third straight Copa Libertadores final.

I firmly believe Athletico PR have been punching well above their weight all tournament long, heavily relying on their home form to often get them out of trouble.

Their first away win in this competition occurred in their quarter final tie, when 17-year-old Victor Roque bundled home a 96th minute winner against Estudiantes, who were very unlucky to come away with nothing.

I'll probably keep repeating myself until I inevitably see former Brazilian manager Felipe Scolari and club captain Thiago Heleno lift the Copa Libertadores trophy for Athletico PR, but their luck has to run out at some point - and if ever there was a team to do just that it's Palmeiras.

Forget the 2-0 defeat in the league discussed above - Palmeiras are putting absolutely everything they have in to secure a famous straight third title. What I love about Abel Ferreira's side is that they play without fear, and they pride themselves on attacking football, whether that be at home or away.

The main qualities a team needs to win this tournament is bravery and the ability to step up. Too many top sides over the years have fallen due to intimidating atmospheres but Ferreira has embedded a level of confidence into his players which is rarely seen in this competition.

Their attacking 4-2-3-1 formation is aggressive, disruptive and ultimately very effective.

Playing with pace and width presents them with multiple attacking threats; they've scored from 13 crosses and 10 from open play - but they are also highly productive from set pieces, scoring seven of them.

There's certainly no rest bite for their opponents over 90 minutes - which probably explains why they have scored 10 of their 35 goals past the 76th minute.

Athletico PR seem to lack a cutting edge in front of goal, even at home in the Copa Libertadores.

Let's elaborate on this. Estudiantes were the most attacking team to come to Brazil this year, and although Athletico PR managed 23 shots, only two were on target.

In contrast, Bolivian outfit The Strongest were by far the most defensive team to face Athletico, and despite the Brazilians mustering up 20 shots, only seven were on target - including just one in the entire first half.

A common theme is that Athletico PR need chances, and plenty of them. Palmeiras simply won't give them as many opportunities as they have had to date, and a frustrating evening for Scolari's team looks like a distinct possibility.

Athletico will make it difficult for Palmeiras, but it's rare to see Palmeiras odds-against, so I'm backing the champions to prevail @ 2.1011/10.