Football Bet of the Day: Champs won't look like chumps

Vital win for hosts on the cards

Atletico Madrid v Levante
Wednesday 16 February, 18:00
Live on Premier Sports

Bolton came into their game at Burton in League One on a run of six wins in seven, and they hadn't lost a league game for over a month. They promptly went 3-0 down in the first 18 minutes at the Pirelli Stadium in a 3-1 defeat. We move on.

Tonight we'll check in with those crazy cats at Atletico Madrid, who have failed to adequately defend their La Liga title, and are now just focused on pipping Barcelona or Betis to a Champions League spot. Los Colchoneros are up against rock-bottom Levante, so there should at least be some respite for the hosts tonight.

The weekend's 4-3 win over Getafe was a great example of Atleti's loss of cohesion this season. They went 2-0 up inside 27 minutes, only to fall 3-2 behind by half time as they conceded three goals in 12 minutes (including two penalties). They drew level by half time, but their hopes of victory seemed to be over when Felipe was sent off on 58 minutes, only for Mario Hermoso to snatch a late winner.

Simeone's men have already conceded more La Liga goals than they have in each of the last three completed campaigns, but it's not all doom and gloom. Atleti have won five of their last six home matches in La Liga, and they have only lost once at home in the league this season.

Levante have claimed just 11 points in the league this season, and they are 13 points adrift of safety. They have lost 14 of their 23 league matches, including six of the last seven. They have lost their last eight away games, conceding an eye-watering 26 goals along the way. The last two away defeats were particularly bad, as they went down 5-0 at Villarreal and 3-0 at Getafe.

There are a couple of ways to play this. We could back the hosts -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9720/21, as five of Levante's last eight away defeats have been by at least two goals, and they have lost by two goals or more in four of their last five La Liga games. Alternatively, you could use the Sportsbook to back Atleti to win and Over 2.5 Goals at 1.834/5, or even Atleti to win and both teams to score at a hefty 3.02/1.

Given how heavily Levante have been losing games recently, I'll take the Asian Handicap route.