After a profitable week, Kev's looking for an odds-against success in Germany.
"Arminia are leaking goals regularly, and their last six league games have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land."
Coaching change won't shore things up
Arminia Bielefeld v Union Berlin
Sunday 07 March, 17:00
Live on Betfair Live Video and BT Sport
We suffered our first setback of the week last night, as Udinese's 2-0 win over Sassuolo left us a goal short. We're still in the black this week, but it would be nice to wrap up our time together with a winner.
We'll head to Germany, because Arminia Bielefeld are under new management as they take on Union Berlin in the Bundesliga.
Arminia caused a real stir this week, as they axed the coach who had transformed them from second-tier relegation battlers into Bundesliga 2. champions.
Uwe Neuhaus had a clear difference of opinion on the future of the club with sporting director Samir Arabi, and the coach rarely wins that battle.
With the club wanting to concentrate on developing younger players for ultimate profit, Arminia have turned to former Salzburg academy chief and Germany youth boss Frank Kramer.
Kramer's first job will be to try to stem the tide when it comes to goals against. Bielefeld have leaked 17 goals in their last five games, and have only taken a point from those matches. Weirdly, that was from a draw at Bayern Munich, a game that saw Arminia build a 3-1 lead before drawing 3-3.
Union Berlin thrashed Arminia 5-0 in the reverse fixture, the biggest win of their short Bundesliga history, and while they have slowed down in recent weeks, it's still been a terrific season. The return of the talismanic Max Kruse is a boost (he scored in his first game back), especially when you consider that forwards Sheraldo Becker and Taiwo Awoniyi are injured.
It's very rare for a Bundesliga game to have an Over 2.5 Goals price of 2.47/5, so my eyes lit up when I saw the quote for this match. I can understand its inflation - seven of Union's last eight BL games have featured fewer than three goals. However, the return of Kruse (seven goals and five assists) will make them a lot more enterprising, and Arminia's defending has been very poor in recent games.
Arminia's last six games have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land, and that's what I'll go for again here.
2021 FBOTD P/L
Points Staked: 34
Points Returned: 30.25
P/L: -3.75 points