Nottingham Forest v Man Utd: Back Fernandes to score in 7/1 Bet Builder

• Man Utd are good at bouncing back from defeats

• Bruno Fernandes loves the FA Cup and can net again

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Nottingham Forest v Man Utd
Wednesday February 28, 19:45
Live on BBC One

Forest have made their mark against United

Forest are trying to make the last eight of the FA Cup for the second time in three seasons and they can take heart from the fact that they've already beaten Manchester United at the City Ground this season.

That 2-1 win came in late December when goals from Nicolas Dominguez (64) and Morgan-Gibbs White (82) secured victory after Marcus Rashford had levelled with 12 minutes to go.

They also led 2-0 in the first meeting at Old Trafford before United stormed back to win 3-2 thanks to Bruno Fernandes' penalty.

It hasn't exactly been a smooth passage through to the last 16 for Forest. They beat Blackpool 3-2 in extra-time after a 2-2 draw at the City Ground had sent the tie to a replay. And they had to go even deeper against Bristol City, eventually going through on penalties after the replay in Nottingham had ended 1-1.

City Ground a key venue in United's history

United have only progressed once from their five FA Cup ties against Nottingham Forest, although the last head-to-head in this competition came back in 1990.

That third-round tie was one of football's great Sliding Doors moments as Mark Robins scored the only goal to give Sir Alex Ferguson a reprieve after dismissal loomed following a winless run of eight games.

United went on to lift the FA Cup that season and their tally of 12 puts them only behind Arsenal on the all-time list of winners. Surprisingly, they've only won it once since 2004 (2016) although they did make the final last year, losing 2-1 to neighbours City.

So far in this season's competition, Erik ten Hag's side have won 2-0 at League One Wigan and 4-2 at League Two Newport although in the latter United were hauled back to 2-2 at one point.

United a far better bet on the road

Both teams go into the match on the back of Premier League defeats. There was nothing particularly shocking about Forest losing 4-2 at fourth-placed Aston Villa but eyebrows were raised when United were overturned 2-1 at home by Fulham.

For this one, Betfair Exchange customers make Nottingham Forest 3.412/5 to win in 90 minutes, with Man Utd 2.35/4 and The Draw 3.711/4.

Here's an interesting excercise when mulling those prices: how would the game be priced up at Old Trafford? Clearly, United would be some kind of firm odds-on so why ask the question?

The point here is that United's away record in the top flight this season is exactly the same as their home record: won seven, drawn one, lost five. In fact, you could argue it's slightly better as their home goal difference is -1 (remarkable really) and their away +1.

In short, United, who have the same number of away victories as leaders Liverpool, are just as likely to win on the road than at home on this season's evidence.

There's also a feeling backed up by evidence that United find a result when it's needed most. On eight separate occasions this season they've followed a defeat with a win. True, their record does show three sets of back-to-back defeats since September but LW is far more common than LL when perusing their results.

Only the bottom three have lost more home games than Forest so United are the bet. The price can be boosted by backing the visitors to win and both teams scoring but the jump to around 11/43.75 isn't really worth the risk.

Fernandes can strike in absence of Hojlund

I'd have greater confidence in United if Rasmus Hojlund was fit but he's ruled out for the forseeable. It's a blow but the Fulham game, the first one he missed, may have been the wake-up call they needed. In short, they have to crack on without him and others have to step up.

And when it comes to this competition the best Manchester United player for Bet Builder purposes has to be Bruno Fernandes.

The Portuguese has scored five goals in his last five FA Cup ties and that includes strikes in each of the last three. Plus, he scored the winner in United's 3-2 Old Trafford success over Forest earlier this season.

Fernandes to score in a Man Utd win pays just over 4/15.00 but we can boost that to around 7/18.00 by adding in Over 8.5 corners. That's a modest ask, especially as United Premier League games average 12.5, the highest in the top-flight this season. Forest matches average a fraction short of 10.

Now read all our FA Cup betting content here!