English FA Cup

Man City v Chelsea: Back Malo Gusto to assist as Chelsea set to shock City in 22/1 punt

Mauricio Pochettino - Chelsea boss
Mauricio Pochettino is eyeing a second domestic cup final spot

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - thinks Chelsea are the value play against Man City in the FA Cup semi-final with Malo Gusto backed to claim an assist at Wembley at very juicy odds...


Man City v Chelsea - FA Cup semi-final
Saturday April 20, 17:15
Live on BBC One

Take note of City's poor record in FA Cup semis

Double treble, gone.

But a domestic double still is very much on the cards for Manchester City, who are 4/91.44 with on the Sportsbook to win the Premier League and 8/131.61 to win a third FA Cup under Pep Guardiola. This leaves the odds available at 5/42.25 for that double - around a 44 per cent chance.

I didn't see too much wrong with City's performance against Real Madrid - they just ran into a club that thrive in these pressure-cooker environments and just know how to win. Guardiola's side created 2.7 worth of expected goals and posted 33 shots.

I've always felt the FA Cup is where City's bid for multiple trophies is most likely to falter rather than the Champions League though as this semi-final always comes bang in the middle of a hectic period of Champions League and Premier League matches where every game is so intense.

And boy was Wednesday's night game intense - those 120 minutes would've drained the players both mentally and physically.

Those Champions League quarter-finals maybe explain why City's record in FA Cup semi-finals is very mediocre, playing six and winning just two.

And those two wins were against Sheffield United, when they were in the Championship, and Brighton when Chris Hughton was in charge - not the Brighton that has taken the Premier League by storm over the last two years.

City will need to be at their very best to dispose of a dangerous Chelsea, who have been steadily backed on the Betfair Exchange to win this match over the past 48 hours. The 7.26/1 is now 5.85/1 for a Chelsea win in 90 minutes with City at 1.635/8. No doubt the City fatigue factor is a reason for that market move.

And punters looking to back Chelsea will have seen things are looking up for Maurico Pochettino's side in terms of the future. His side are now unbeaten in 12 games across all competitions in 90 minutes if you include the Carabao Cup final extra-time defeat to Liverpool.

Chelsea got a lot of stick that day for the way they froze when Liverpool chucked the kids on but for large parts of that encounter they were the better side, winning the expected goals battle 2.28 to 1.78 and posting nine shots on target in the process.

Over their last eight games Chelsea have scored 26 goals - that's an over three goals a game. And have scored at least twice in all eight of those matches.

You can probably sense I'm happy to fade Man City in this match. If a theory isn't broke, don't fix it - and keep backing it. That's my feeling about City's vulnerability to counter-attacks which led me to advising Real Madrid to qualify at 5/23.50 over City in midweek. Chelsea have already scored five goals against City in two games this season, utilising their searing pace on the counter.

So if you fancy backing Chelsea here you are getting some fantastic prices to play with as the market is obviously so skewed towards Man City. Chelsea on with a +1 start on the Asian Handicap at 1.9010/11 leapt off the page on the Betfair Exchange.

This means we only lose our full stake if Man City win by two or more goals - a scenario which is hard to picture considering the fatigue situation and Guardiola being very aware of the threat Cheslea provide. Stakes are returned if City win by one goal and we get paid out in full if Chelsea win or draw.

Back Chelsea +1 on the Asian Handicap @ 1.9010/11

Bet here

Gusto is here to assist you...

Malo Gusto is a player I'm very excited about for Chelsea in the long-term. To be a top-class full-back in the modern day you need to be a creative force and he's become the first name on the Chelsea teamsheet in recent weeks due to his pace, guile and deadly crossing accuracy which is a huge weapon in how Pochettino's constructs his attacks.

The 9/110.00 on offer with the Betfair Sportsbook for Gusto to assist a goal is just begging to be backed. If you had backed him to grab an assist in his last 11 starts, you'd have won four times to a very healthy level stakes profit such is the inflated prices he's been going off.

Across his last 17 starts, he's creating 2.2 chances per game for his teammates as Chelsea like to make their moves down that right flank with Palmer and Gusto forging some impressive chemistry.

Chelsea to qualify and Gusto to register an assist certainly has a squeak at 22/123.00.

Back a Gusto assist & Chelsea to qualify @ 22/123.00

Bet here

Now read our Premier League best tips for the weekend here!


Follow Lewis Jones' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.


Football... Only Bettor - Listen here!

Recommended bets

BET £10 ON EURO 2024 WINNER AND GET A FREE BET EVERY TIME YOUR TEAM SCORES IN THE GROUP STAGE

Available to new and existing customers. Bet at least £10 (can be £10 win or £5 each-way) on the Euro 2024 Outright Winner market and get a free bet per every goal scored by your selection in the Group stage of the tournament. Opt in required. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.