Liverpool v Southampton: Back Reds to concede early again

• Reds have conceded first in 11 of 26 PL games

• Back Saints to opening scoring in first half at 12/53.40

• Youngster Clark has assist potential

• Read about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout offer here

Liverpool v Southampton
Wednesday 28 February, 20:00
Live on ITV1 and Betfair Live Video

Two games last week, two games this week - if the reality of chasing trophies on four different fronts hadn't truly dawned on Liverpool, then their recent injuries have certainly ensured it has been brought into focus.

It's going to two games pretty much every week from now until the end of the season if all four are going to be captured.

Liverpool well below full strength

It's one down, three to go after Sunday's Carabao Cup final success against Chelsea but it's quickly back to work with this FA Cup last-16 tie next on the agenda.

Now, I wouldn't want to question Liverpool's professionalism but it would surely be no surprise were there to be a post-Wembley letdown, especially after that game went to extra time.

The injury situation will clearly dictate, to some extent, Jurgen Klopp's team selection but so will the forthcoming fixture list.

Saturday brings a trip to Nottingham Forest, while it's now less than two weeks until Manchester City arrive at Anfield for a game which will go a long way to deciding the eventual Premier League champions.

The selections to face Southampton will definitely be made with those two matches in mind, so this won't be anywhere near Liverpool's first-choice XI and will likely be some way short of the strength of team put out on Sunday.

Given the queue outside the Melwood treatment room, the thought of sacrificing a competition must surely have crossed Klopp's mind and if that is a conclusion that has been made, then the FA Cup will surely be the one.

Regardless of Klopp's Quadruple mindset, some of the youngsters who came off the bench at Wembley could well get chance in the starting XI on Wednesday to face a side sitting fourth in the Championship.

5.59/2 Saints pushing for promotion

Admittedly, the Saints' promotion push has suffered something of a dent in recent weeks - three of their last four matches have been lost - but there's no doubt they are still one of the better sides in the second tier.

They'll consider this something of a free-hit, although as is always the case with this competition these days, it's hard to know how strong a side they will put out. An away game at Birmingham on Saturday is arguably more important with boss Russell Martin admitting his side "could do without" a midweek trip to Anfield.

Given all the uncertainty, it's hard to be confident about much.

Some will feel 1.645/8 about Liverpool to win the game in 90 minutes is a great bet - remember they've lost four games all season and just one of their last 16. Others will be prepared to side with Southampton.

First-goal trend worth following

Personally, I'm not someone to go backing short prices when there's a lot of uncertainty about so I'm more inclined to lean Southampton's way but rather than back them to win - 5.59/2 doesn't exactly scream value - the bet I'm interested in is for them to score the first goal.

For a side sitting top of the league, Liverpool have some surprising stats in terms of conceding first.

Their opponents have bagged the opener in 11 of 26 Premier League games so far with nine of those occasions seeing the first goal scored before half time.

It's also occurred in three of the Reds' six Europa League matches this season, plus when Southampton's fellow Championship high-fliers, Leicester, came to Anfield in the Carabao Cup.

Given the circumstances already explained, I like Southampton to net the opener at 7/42.75. They are also 23/103.30 to do so before half time - I'll take the latter price given the frequency with which this has happened.

Another possibility is to back Southampton/Liverpool at 22.021/1 in the HT/FT market, although for all their early sloppiness, the Reds have often managed to get back on terms (or better) by the interval.

As for other betting potential, both teams to score (1.594/7) has now landed in the last eight at Anfield. For the record, seven of those matches have seen Liverpool win - a home win and BTTS is at 2.915/8.

Teenager has assist potential

I also looked at the player markets in a bid to find some value around one of the home side's youngsters.

While the layers have been quick to shorten up some of them, there is one I like the look of and that's Bobby Clark.

He came off the bench at Wembley to play 48 of the 120 minutes and, following injuries to Ryan Gravenberch and Wataru Endo in that game, the midfielder could well get a starting role here.

Notably, Clark has four assists in seven starts for Liverpool's under-21 team in Premier League 2 this season and while clearly this is a step up, so many of his academy colleagues have already shown they are capable of bridging that gap.

The 19-year-old is at 4/15.00 in the anytime assist market which looks tempting.

Opta fact

Southampton's Che Adams has been directly involved in four goals in his last three FA Cup appearances (2 goals, 2 assists).

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