Jones Knows Notebook: Back Bournemouth to win FA Cup at 25/1

• Despite no win in seven, Cherries remain a team to follow

• A statement win for Iraola is coming - the FA Cup may provide it

• Back Forest's corner line at 11/102.11 v porous Man Utd

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Cherries to pop up in cup at massive odds?

Andoni Iraola should be Manchester United's next manager.

He is 20/121.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook to get it. If United are serious about implementing smart strategy into their decision-making, then Iraola should be a name on their list.

He's doing a severely underrated job at Bournemouth, where he's making a strong case for himself as being the best pound-for-pound manager in the Premier League - Gary O'Neil and Unai Emery may have something to say about that though.

Iraola's hybrid pressing style is a key component of his management but his problem-solving skills and his ability to create a culture that makes players better footballers is what makes him one of the most exciting managers in world football.

Remember, many were calling for his head after failing to win any of his first nine Premier League games in charge. But he found a solution.

He found a foursome in the heart of his side that complement one another and bring so much solidity to their game. Since Marcos Senesi, Ilya Zabarnyi, Ryan Christie and Lewis Cook were selected together after the 6-1 thumping to Manchester City in November, Bournemouth have been a different animal - losing just four of their last 16 games in all competitions. They are wonderfully in-sync in a key area of the pitch.

It's backed up by a spectacular underlying process, especially defensively, that points to the Cherries being unfortunate not to have picked up more than 25 points in their last 14 Premier League games.

In those last 14 games, they are working at a per 90 non-penalty expected goals-against ratio of 1.07, a defensive process only bettered by City and Arsenal.

And, when assessing the xG battles across their last 16 games in all competitions, they have won 13 of them, including in the 2-2 draw with Aston Villa and their 3-1 defeat to Fulham.

Those that watched their 1-0 defeat to Manchester City on Saturday will have seen a team that did enough in the second half to grab at least a draw. After the break they recorded a higher expected goals total and posted more shots than the double-treble seekers. Not many teams achieve that against Pep Guardiola's force of nature. They made them look ordinary for large parts.

That defeat to City means it somehow seven games without a win in the Premier League for Bournemouth but I think a strong end to the season awaits if they keep posting performance metrics of such strength.

Iraola's football is still thriving.

He's yet to slay a giant though, something his Rayo Vallecano side were famed for having taken 14 points against the top five in La Liga last season.

A big result is going to drop Bournemouth's way this season, so this has sparked my interest each way at 25/126.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook on them winning the FA Cup. We're able to get half the odds for the first two, so basically we're playing a 12/1 shot on the place part for them to make the final. Once getting past Leicester on Tuesday in the last 16 - the Championship leaders will have eyes and focus elsewhere - the quarter finals or semi finals could just be where they finally get a statement win against one of the big boys.

It's coming. Stick with Iraola and profit will follow.

Man Utd's alarming corners ratio

Speaking of the FA Cup there is a monster fixture on the horizon for Manchester United on Wednesday. They go to Nottingham Forest in the last 16 with potentially their season on the line after drifting out to 15/2 to make the top four on the Betfair Sportsbook following their home defeat to Fulham.

That unbeaten start to 2024 which was built on fragile foundations based on their overall underlying process is now almost meaningless as once again Erik ten Hag comes under the spotlight. He is 28/129.00 on the Sportsbook to be the next Premier League manager sacked.

The unconvincing nature of United's performances can be seen through some metrics that show how much defending their defenders have been asked to do. In their last eight Premier League games, United have conceded the most crosses into their box in the Premier League - a cool 203, that's 19 more than any other team.

A high proportion of those crosses have come from corners, where opposition teams are defying market expectation in terms of their corner lines.

United's eight-game average of corners conceded now stands at 7.5 per 90 minutes after Fulham won nine at Old Trafford.

With their style of soaking up pressure and trying to play solely with counter attacks in mind certain to remain the same, opposition teams can be expected to hit somewhere near that average which is from a sound sample size.

Forest are 9/25.50 with the Sportsbook to continue hitting the seven corners or more average - a price that does have legs but I don't think we need to be that greedy. The over 4.5 corner line for Nuno Espirito Santo's team at 11/102.11 does the job perfectly well. A cracking bet.

Now read Mike Norman's Monday Night Football preview of West Ham vs Brentford!

Follow Lewis Jones' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.