FA Cup Tips: Leeds pair backed plus 15/1 Wembley bet builder

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Man City v Southampton - 15/116.00 Bet Builder

Man City v Southampton
Saturday, 17:15pm
Live on TNT Sports 1

This is City's eighth consecutive FA Cup semi-final and Pep Guardiola has form for making sweeping changes for Wembley, occasionally at a cost.

Tonda Eckert therefore will have been delighted to see the Citizens haul themselves back in the title reckoning, all the better to distract them.

Not that the Saints are solely focused on this Saturday, preoccupied as they are by a promotion push after putting together a tremendous 17-game unbeaten run in the Championship. They last failed to score in any competition way back in early January and BTTS is a shout at 9/101.90

With Southampton converting the third highest number of first half goals in their league, and City bagging inside 25 mins in 38% of their fixtures in 2026, then BTTS in the first period at 3/14.00 also tempts.

Midfield skirmishes and Haaland to be Haaland

If City give up chances, as they're prone to do for all their brilliance, then Finn Azaz has the credentials to capitalise, the Irish creative registering three goal involvements in his last four.

The former Middlesbrough man is not averse to a yellow either, picking up four bookings in his last ten starts.

If Rodri can't shake off a groin problem, opposing Azaz in midfield will be Nico O'Reilly who has committed multiple fouls in five of his last eight starts. He erred four times on Wednesday at Burnley, repositioned in the middle of the park.

Lastly, City's upturn in fortunes and performances has been accompanied by a lofty SOT count, racking up 7+ in six of their last ten.

Unsurprisingly, Erling Haaland has been responsible for the lion's share of them, the striker averaging 1.89 per 90 in 2025/26.

Half of his last 12 have been struck before the break.

Chelsea v Leeds - Okafor can make the difference

Chelsea v Leeds
Sunday, 15:00
Live on TNT Sports 1

A demoralised Chelsea had won one in seven when Calum McFarlane last took the rudder, steering them through the choppy waters of a trip to the Etihad before handing control of the sinking vessel to Liam Rosenior.

Now they amount to wreckage on the shore. At Brighton on Tuesday they ran eight fewer kilometres than their opponent, faced nine shots on target, and accrued a pitiful xG of 0.38. They were all at sea.

It will take a dramatic transformation just to make them competitive at Wembley and, in decent shape, Leeds will seriously fancy their chances of a reaching a first FA Cup final for 53 years. The Yorkshire side are 23/103.30 to win without the need of extra-time or pens.

Both teams are sweating on late fitness tests, Cole Palmer a doubt for the Blues, Anton Stach for the Whites.

Dom to run foul

Chelsea haven't scored in the league for just shy of eight hours, despite taking on 73 shots in that period. Just 17.8% of their efforts were on target.

What they wouldn't give to have Dominic Calvert-Lewin in their ranks, or rather, we know what they would give - a hundred million quid plus a seven year contract.

Flippancy aside, the forward has reached double figures this term, puts himself about, and brings others into play.

It's that middle trait that interests us here. The 29-year-old has 5.3 foul involvements per 90 to his name across his last three outings.

Noah's arc

Chelsea's only clean sheets since mid-January have been against Championship and League One opposition in this competition.

With five goal involvements in his last four starts, Noah Okafor should therefore trouble a back-line that has been remarkably passive given their sustained crisis. Even upping their foul-count would suggest they care.

Deployed more centrally in recent weeks has significantly upped the Swiss attacker's numbers with four key passes at home to Wolves last weekend testament to that. He is the man in form, the man to back.

Now read Mark Stinchcombe's Premier League tips for this weekend here