FA Cup Tips: Eight stand-out bets from 20/23 to 9/1 for Sunday's 3rd round clashes

• Forest's recent recovery under threat

• Hammers face cup upset

• Arsenal to prevail in marquee clash

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

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Luton v Bolton (14:00) - No mere minnows

FA Cup lore dictates that at least one relegation threatened top-flight side goes on to have a memorable cup run. Can that be the Hatters this season?

Their opening match-up in this regard is a curate's egg. They're at home, where they have started to show the best of themselves, drawing with Liverpool, beating Newcastle and Crystal Palace, and taking Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea to the wire even in defeat.

And they're up against League One opposition, which always helps.

Bolton though are no mere minnows. On a promotion charge, the most pertinent here of their many attributes is an ability to keep a clean sheet on the road, doing so in 63% of their away games this term.

Up front, Dion Charles has caught the eye of Hull and Swansea by scoring 0.64 goals per 90.

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Man City v Huddersfield (14:00) - Home banker

Pep Guardiola has encountered the Terriers before in the cup, a goalless stalemate in his first season at Manchester City requiring a replay. Should struggling Huddersfield secure another draw here however it would be a minor miracle.

The Blues have a formidable record at home in this competition, winning their last 11 and racking up 47 goals in the process. Of more relevance, since being crowned world club champions, City are back in the groove. Against Everton and Sheffield United they committed to an attempt on goal every 4.3 minutes.

Oscar Bobb shone in the latter and the youngster could be given a start this weekend, while Kevin De Bruyne may get some game-time from the bench. Julian Alvarez meanwhile has fired four in his last three outings, compensating brilliantly for Erling Haaland's absence.

Huddersfield are the draw specialists of the Championship and strange things can happen in the FA Cup. Not this Sunday though at the Etihad.

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Nottingham Forest v Blackpool (14:00) - Can't see Chris Wood for the Trees

Though the Tricky Trees very much appear to be enjoying a 'new manager bounce' under Nuno Espirito Santo, this is still a hard one to call.

The Portuguese coach has previous for making sweeping changes in this competition and three games into his tenure he could be tempted to assess the full reaches of his squad when facing League One opposition.

With five of his players on route to AFCON - including half of his defence in Moussa Niakhate and Ola Aina - he has little choice other than to rejig and reimagine anyway.

At face value, this offers up a slim chance for Blackpool to vanquish Forest for the second year running in the third round, so it's unfortunate that Neil Critchley's side have stumbled into poor away form at the worst possible time. The Tangerines have lost three on the bounce on their travels, their Play-Off hopes lessening as a consequence.

What they do have is League One's joint-leading goalscorer Jordan Rhodes rolling back the years and scoring every 128 minutes this term.

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Peterborough v Leeds (14:00) - All saints

Terrific home form is propping up Leeds' promotion charge so it will be interesting to see if their recent poor output away from Elland Road extends to the cup. Since putting three past Norwich at Carrow Road back in October, Daniel Farke's men have converted just five times in seven outings on the road. They lost at Preston and West Brom over Christmas, with a mere three shots on target in response.

Scoring certainly isn't a problem for Darren Ferguson's exciting young side, averaging two per 90 all season. Unbeaten in nine, Posh go into this in the finest of fettle.

Whatever transpires at London Road don't expect a bad tempered affair. The hosts top the fair play table for their division while Leeds have been positively saintly under Farke.

It's notable too that Peterborough are table-toppers for corners won in League One this season.

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Shrewsbury v Wrexham (14:00) - Unsurprising upset

Though a league separates them it will shock precisely nobody if Wrexham win out at the New Meadow while even a comfortable victory will barely trouble an eyebrow.

Despite being mid-table in League One the Shrews have woefully struggled to find the net this term, finding themselves out-scored by Fleetwood who are rock-bottom. It's a situation not helped by having the second worst chance conversion rate in their division.
Moreover, they have accrued a measly four points from the 16 times they have gone behind in 2023/24.

Don't be surprised if Wrexham start brightly. They tend to, scoring inside 15 minutes on nine occasions already this season.

Paul Mullin is an obvious candidate to make the difference but bear Elliot Lee in mind too. The former Luton star has a habit of scoring three on, three off. A dry spell over Christmas means he's due one.

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West Brom v Aldershot (14:00) - No Woking

Baggies fans may be happy with the state of play under Carlos Corberan but it's fair to say that his aggressive-pressing, quick-countering brand of football doesn't translate to high-scoring entertainment. None of their last 11 league fixtures have featured more than three goals. Indeed, their last four finished 1-0, twice in their favour.

A well-drilled back-line half explains the binary results while at the other end West Brom have been blighted with injuries and absences. Losing striker Grady Diangara to AFCON only adds to this.

All the same, it's hard to imagine another Woking occurring here, especially with the visitors being so porous at the back. Eleven goals shipped in either side of Christmas have dented Aldershot's National League play-off aspirations.

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West Ham v Bristol City (14:00) - Hammer blow

The Hammers have progressed to the fourth round six years running but may come unstuck this weekend. Kurt Zouma, Lucas Paqueta and Mohammed Kudus are all serious doubts, three players who have been key in David Moyes' side picking up 2.2 points per game since mid-November. The latter two were particularly missed against Brighton on Tuesday evening where creatively West Ham toiled.

That still leaves Jarrod Bowen of course, scorer of exactly a third of their league goals this term but even so, the Robins are fancied to get something from this. And given their opponent's current lofty position in the top-flight it would constitute one of the upsets of the round.

City's results remain erratic, but there are clear signs that the players are beginning to get to grips with Liam Manning's mandate. A 4-1 besting of Watford at Vicarage Road on Boxing Day demonstrated what they're capable of when it all clicks.

Look out for Tommy Conway, who is coming into goal-scoring form just at the right time to make a name for himself at the London Stadium.

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Arsenal v Liverpool (16:30) - No Mo, no show

After playing out a somewhat underwhelming draw at Anfield going into Christmas, hostilities resume between the title contenders, this time at the Emirates, this time in the cup, and this time minus Mo Salah who is away on international duty.

The absence of the prolific forward is highly pertinent, when his formidable record against the Gunners is acknowledged, not to mention his 27 goal involvements in 27 this season. It leaves Jurgen Klopp with a quartet of options up front - Jota, Nunez, Dias and Gakpo - who have combined scored just 16 from 70 league appearances this term.

Add in Klopp's tendency to blood the odd youth prospect or two, regardless of the opposition, in this competition and you have to favour a home win.

With Liverpool deprived of a specialist left-back we can expect Bukayo Saka to come to the fore, the flying winger contributing a goal involvement every 100 minutes in 2023/24. Gabriel Jesus meanwhile typically comes good in this tournament, with 10 goals and six assists from previous FA Cup adventures.

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Read Dan Fitch's tips for Saturday's games here

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