FA Cup Tips: Best bets for this week's fourth round replays

• Villa value to inflict third straight Chelsea defeat

• Championship side can keep it tight at Forest

• Leeds will concede at Pilgrims

• Southampton run will continue

• Coventry can beat Wednesday again

Plymouth v Leeds (Tuesday, 19:45)

Leeds' home draw against Plymouth is the only match that they have failed to win, from their last seven games. Daniel Farke's team have only conceded two goals in that unbeaten run of seven fixtures, though their defensive resilience is likely to be tested by Plymouth again, with the Pilgrims scoring in each of their last ten games (W4 D5 L1). A Leeds win and both teams to score is 19/102.90.

Coventry v Sheffield Wednesday (Tuesday, 19:45)

Coventry saw a twelve match unbeaten run come to an end over the weekend, when they lost 2-1 at Norwich (W7 D5). That run not only included the 1-1 draw with Sheffield Wednesday which prompted this replay, but also two Championship victories against the Yorkshire club by the Sky Blues. A Coventry win and under 3.5 goals landed both times in those triumphs and you can back a repeat at 11/102.11.

Southampton v Watford (Tuesday, 19:45)

The Saints' 2-0 win at Rotherham on Saturday, extended their unbeaten run to 23 games (W16 D7). That include two away draws at Watford, with both matches ending 1-1. With Southampton winning their last nine games at St Mary's and Watford losing to Cardiff at the weekend, we have to assume this will be a home win. This is another match where a home win and under 3.5 goals should land, this time at 7/52.40.

Nottingham Forest v Bristol City (Wednesday, 19:45)

Bristol City have already knocked West Ham out of this competition through an FA Cup replay, but may have missed the chance to eliminate Forest, having drawn 0-0 with the Premier League side at Ashton Gate. The visitors should at least keep it tight though, with eight of their last nine games seeing less than three goals. Under 2.5 goals is 9/101.90.

Aston Villa v Chelsea (Wednesday, 19:45)

The main attraction from this week's FA Cup fourth round replays is Aston Villa's clash with Chelsea and it would appear to be a match where there is major value to be found. Villa may have lost their last home game when they faced Newcastle, but their form at Villa Park has been excellent under Unai Emery. Chelsea have lost their last two games, in which they have conceded a total of eight goals. An Aston Villa win looks like real value at 23/202.15.

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