Crystal Palace v Aston Villa: Back Over 2.5 goals at 19/20

• Palace unbeaten in 22 of their last 28 games

• Villa won 11 of their last 14 matches

• Five goals when they met in February

• Check out Ste Tudor's Build Ups Tips further down the page

Betfair Saturday Football Superboost

Saturday's Superboost is for the 12:30 kick-off at Stamford Bridge where Chelsea host Everton. Pedro Neto has looked threatening in recent games, with six shots on target in his last three, and the Portuguese should be key for Enzo Maresca's men in this battle of the Blues.

Betfair have boosted the odds on Neto having one or more shots on target from 8/131.61 to 1/12.00. 

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Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
Saturday April 26, 17:15
Live on BBC One

The Context

Just one match stands between these two sides and an FA Cup Final. Two time runners-up most recently in 2016 (Alan Pardew dance anyone) Crystal Palace are 5/42.25 to make the final in just Oliver Glasner's first full season in-charge. Aston Villa may be seven times FA Cup Champions but their last success was way back in 1957 and they haven't won a trophy since the League Cup in 1996, finishing runners-up no fewer than four times across the two domestic cups since. Their favourites to qualify at 8/131.61 for a manager in Unai Emery who hasn't won a trophy since lifting the domestic treble with PSG in 2018.

The Prize

My first instinct here is to think of a tight, low scoring game with a cup final on the line, which indeed the market supports at 3/41.75 but looking back at previous semi-finals, they don't always play out that way. Since the semi-finals were moved to the new Wembley stadium in 2008, there have been seven ties that haven't featured one of the traditional 'big six' sides, and only three have finished Under 2.5 goals. Three of those were all Premier League ties and all three finished with Over 2.5 goals, including Crystal Palace when they beat Watford 2-1 in 2016 with the bet won after just an hour.

The Goals

It's a small sample but given the relatively short price of 3/41.75 I have to go with the bigger value-looking price, and that's to back Over 2.5 goals at 19/201.95. Regular readers will know it's been pretty much my go to bet in the Premier League this season and with good reason to given the success, particularly as I backed it when these two met just a couple of months ago at Selhurst Park where Crystal Palace ran out 4-1 winners.

And given Aston Villa are 23/202.15 favourites here we really must revisit their defensive issues this season. They may be in great form having won 11 of their last 14 games across all competitions but they've only kept six clean sheets in 25 games away from Villa Park in England and Europe this season. As a result, 71% of their Premier League matches have seen Over 2.5 goals, which rises to 77% away from home (13 of 17). Against Premier League opposition in the FA Cup, they've beaten both Spurs and West Ham 2-1.

Crystal Palace are also in good form having bounced back well recently to 5-0 and 5-2 defeats to Newcastle and Man City respectively, firstly getting a point against Bournemouth when down to 10 men for half of the game, then twice coming back from a goal behind against Champions League semi-finalists Arsenal to draw 2-2. It means they have lost just six of their last 28 games across all competitions, scoring two or more goals in 16 of those games.

Overall eight of their last 13 matches against Premier League opposition have seen over 2.5 goals and I have to back Over 2.5 goals yet again given the prices.

Column P/L 2024/25