Arsenal v Manchester United: Back Declan Rice assist at 9/2

• Amorim playing a cute game at managing expectations

• Arsenal scored twice from set pieces in last meeting

• Declan Rice worth a crack for an assist

• Place £10 bet on any sport on the Betfair Exchange to start your Free Bet Streak

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Amorim's Man Utd are progressing

Ruben Amorim is playing a blinder off the pitch with Manchester United in the way he's keeping expectations low. He speaks about United in the way you'd expect someone who has just taken over at Ebbsfleet United - bottom of the National League after taking just nine points so far this season.

All this talk of United needing to "suffer", "survive" and ride the "storm" and even mentioning relegation before the Liverpool game, which had me howling, is all just a very cute way of managing expectations.

And his words have absolutely affected the views of many punters towards United and may have filtered into their price for the Liverpool game too. At one stage think they could of gone off 12/113.00 or bigger at Anfield but eventually United were actually quite well backed closer to kick-off - with their starting price around 7/18.00.

The noise around Amorim and United has been so overblown and this isn't me being an "aftertimer" after their performance at Liverpool. I did tip them to win there for my Sky predictions column and have written positively about them due to signs of positivity in their underlying process behind the sticky results.

Again, the results aren't overly speaking this way yet mainly down to a lack of quality in the final third but they are such a harder team to play against under Amorim than under Ten Hag.

The expected goals against data points to that in terms of offering up less quality chances, they keep the ball with more confidence which restricts teams from sustaining attacks on their goal and out of possession when pressing in the final third they are winning possession back at a higher strike rate.

So, I'm expecting them to be competitive at Arsenal, who are frustrating the life out of me this season and the market for this one has them at 1.774/5. The Manchester United price of 3.55/2 to qualify did twinkle it's eyes at me and I almost had a nibble but one big thing is holding me back: the set piece mismatch.

United are simply unbackable because of it.

Cast your minds back to the league meeting between these two and Arsenal scored both their goals from corners in that 2-0 win, generating 1.59 worth of expected goals from set pieces. Amorim couldn't even watch from the bench that day such was the carnage Arsenal were creating from almost every dead-ball situation.

Since Amorin took over, United have conceded six goals from set pieces - only Wolves conceded more and we all know Arsenal's strengths don't we? They lead the way for goals scored and xG created from set pieces this season. It's almost like a penalty corner in hockey when they win a corner now.

How do we profit then?

The bet for me is Declan Rice assist at 9/25.50 who is on corners from the left for the inswingers and some of his deliveries over the last few weeks have been on the money.

He's already got five assists this season, including in that win over United. And he just looks more like himself lately which bodes well for Arsenal in the second half of the season. He can be a driving force for them and help out in the attacking third as he does carry a lot of quality with his finishing and final ball. Backing that 9/25.50 does mean you've got an assist running for you in open play too.

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Now read Saturday's best stats bets for the FA Cup third round ties