Marseille v Brighton: De Zerbi's side out for redemption at the Vélodrome

• Brighton respond very well to defeats under De Zerbi

• Expect goals from two front-foot teams

• Read Betfair's new 90 minute payout offer here

Marseille v Brighton & Hove Albion
Thursday 5 October, 17:45
Live on TNT Sports 1

The Seagulls return to European action this week, and they've got a couple of scores to settle. Their European debut didn't get off to an ideal start, losing in a shock defeat to AEK Athens, while their 6-1 defeat at Aston Villa Park on Saturday will have really given Roberto De Zerbi and co cause for reflection.

Brighton's highs under De Zerbi have tended to be very high, and yet their lows - when they occur - have been similarly extreme.

In the 13 defeats they've suffered under the Italian, they've conceded roughly three goals per game (2.9). Indeed, they've lost by 3+ goals on three separate occasions since May - an unusually high number for a team who've otherwise performed remarkably well in this period.

The good news for Brighton fans is that, with the exception of the defeat at Aston Villa at the weekend, their team had won each of the last nine matches that had come directly after a loss. They outscored their opponents by 23 goals across those eight games, netting 29 times and only conceding six in return.

It's for that reason that we can give some weight to De Zerbi's words following defeat at Villa Park, where he remarked: "on Thursday, you will see another Brighton."

A Marseille side in transition

For Marseille, this will be just their second game under Gennaro Gattuso. They lost 3-2 at Monaco in his debut at the weekend, while the Italian remarked after the match that with such little time to work with his squad, the quick turnaround to Europa League action isn't particularly ideal for that process.

If there's one thing about a Gattuso side though, it's that they don't lack for bravery. In-keeping with his fiery character, his teams aren't sent out to soak up pressure and wait for their moments. They want to actively force their openings, whether it's through taking risks in possession or trying to rob the ball from their opponents through aggressive pressure.

Perhaps it goes without saying, but they can't afford to get those two things wrong against Brighton.

Between Gattuso being new in the role and the fact he's unlikely to take an entirely conservative approach, despite the threat De Zerbi's side pose, I expect Brighton to be quick to find the weak parts of their game plan.

At the same time, fortune does favour the brave - even if only in certain moments - and Marseille do have considerable weapons to work with, when they can interrupt Brighton's possession play.

Joaquín Correa, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Iliman Ndiaye were the three to start in attack in Gattuso's opening game, and they provide real mobility in the final third - particularly given the positional freedom that their coach grants.

Indeed, even if the performance turns out to be a little ragged, the home side can still expect to generate some danger in attack. I expect Brighton to be in vengeful shape here, but for Marseille to be spiky in their approach on home turf.

For that reason, I'll take Brighton to win or draw and over 2.5 goals scored in the game at 5/42.25.

Brighton don't stay shot-shy for long

It's tricky to judge just what De Zerbi's team selection will be in the wake of a 6-1 defeat. Will he ring the changes to make a point? Or will he go as strong as he possibly can to right the ship, even with a big game coming against Liverpool at the weekend?

In the end, I'll lean on the Italian's promise of a "different Brighton" and assume he's going to load up his attack with intention. His side have averaged 6.7 shots on target per game across all competitions this season, and given the necessity for the Seagulls to return to their usual levels in this game, I'll back them to land 6+ shots on target at the Vélodrome 11/102.11.

To pair with that, I'll take Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to land 1+ shot on target in the game 4/91.44. The 34-year-old has been Marseille's most-used forward this season, while his 14 shots on target are at least twice as many as any of his teammates.

Indeed, all four of his goals for the club have been scored in European action, including a brace and four shots on target against Ajax last time out in the Europa League.

Get tips for all the European action from our roster of expert tipsters