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Europa League Tips: Six bets for six second leg matches on Thursday

Kevin Hatchard
16 March 2023
3:30 min read

Vincenzo Grifo is the creative heartbeat of Freiburg

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The Europa League quarter-final line-up will be decided on Thursday night, and Kevin Hatchard has drilled down into the last 16 to pick out six bets for us.

Grifo involved in 16 Bundesliga goals this season
Valencia on great form for Fener
Shakhtar games tend to feature plenty of goals
Read my Betis v Man Utd preview here!
Find out why Martinelli is worth backing once more

Italian international to upset Serie A giants

Freiburg v Juventus
Thursday 16 March, 17:45
Live on BT Sport

It's been a golden era for Freiburg, with the club still in the mix for Champions League qualification through the league, and one glorious night away from reaching the Europa League quarter-finals.

Christian Streich's men competed well in Turin, and while they didn't pose an attacking threat (Infogol say they posted an xG figure of just 0.07 in attack), a 1-0 defeat means they are still in with a shout of pulling off a famous upset at the Europa Park Stadion.

If Freiburg are to shock Max Allegri's European giants, set plays could be a big factor, and the team from the Black Forest have a dead-ball specialist in Vincenzo Grifo.

The Italian international has four league assists and 12 Bundesliga goals, he takes penalties, free-kicks and corners, and he strikes the ball beautifully. He has scored three goals across his last three home games.

Juventus looked shaky in their Sunday night win over the bottom side Sampdoria, conceding twice against the worst attacking side in the division.

While the Bianconeri's defence was given an easy ride last week, I think they'll be put under far more pressure here. We can back Grifo to score at 4.1, but I think it's worth backing him in the Score or Assist market at 2.01/1, given that set pieces could play a big part here.

Back Grifo to score or assist @

2.0

Veteran goal-getter to make his mark

Fenerbahce v Sevilla
Thursday 16 March, 17:45
Live on BT Sport

Despite a 2-0 first-leg defeat, Fenerbahce are still in with a shout of reaching the quarter-finals. Sevilla nearly blew a 3-0 first-leg lead in the last round against PSV (they lost the second leg 2-0), and Jorge Sampaoli's relegation-threatened side has lost five of the last seven away games, conceding at least twice in all of those defeats.

In their last away game, the Andalusians were shredded 6-1 by Atletico Madrid.

You could back Fenerbahce to qualify at 5.59/2 and possibly trade out if Fener make the strong start I expect them to, but I'll back Ecuador striker Enner Valencia to score at any time at 2.789/5.

He has netted 28 goals in 36 appearances for club and country this season, remarkably including six goals in the last two home games (two against Konyaspor and four against Kasimpasa). If Fener are to have any chance of turning the tie around, Valencia is likely to be on the scoresheet.

Back Valencia to score anytime @

2.78

Dutch delight for goals backers

Feyenoord v Shakhtar
Thursday 16 March, 17:45
Live on BT Sport

Shakhtar's incredible run in European competition still has a chance of continuing into April, after they drew 1-1 with Feyenoord in the first leg in Warsaw. The goals came late, with Shakhtar in front in the 79th minute, only to concede an 89th-minute leveller.

Eredivisie leaders Feyenoord have seen a BTTS bet land in 11 of their 15 games since the World Cup break, and both teams have found the net in 16 of Shakhtar's last 23.

I think this will be another lively encounter (Shakhtar have scored in all four of their away games in the Champions League and Europa League this term), so I'll back BTTS at 2.01/1.

Back BTTS @

2.0

Berlin to win the Union meeting

Union Saint-Gilloise v Union Berlin
Thursday 16 March, 20:00
Live on BT Sport

These two played out an incredible 3-3 draw last week, and while it may seem that the Belgian title-chasers Union SG are in pole position, it's worth remembering that Union Berlin have already beaten them in Belgium in the group stage.

The Germans dominated the first leg, and the Infogol Expected Goals data shows they won the xG battle by 3.15 to 1.16. Remarkably, Union SG only had four shots on target, and scored from three of them.

Union Berlin are the 1.715/7 favourites to qualify here, and I'm happy to back them. They went to Ajax in the previous round and played superbly in a draw, and they won't be intimidated here.

I'll boost the price to 2.26/5 on the Bet Builder here by backing Union Berlin's Sheraldo Becker to have a shot on target - the Surinam international has been one of his club's most efficient attacking players this term, and in the Bundesliga he averages 0.84 shots on target per 90.

Back Becker to have 1+ shot on target & Berlin to qualify @

2.2

Mourinho's men to finish the job

Real Sociedad v Roma
Thursday 16 March, 20:00
Live on BT Sport

Although the weekend's bizarre 4-3 home defeat to Sassuolo did Roma few favours in the chase for Champions League qualification, the Giallorossi have generally looked very solid since the World Cup break.

Jose Mourinho's side has racked up nine clean sheets in 16 competitive matches in 2023, including in a 2-0 first-leg win over Real Sociedad last week.

La Real are doing brilliantly to compete for Champions League qualification through La Liga, but the brutal truth is that they are running out of steam.

Imanol Alguacil's side has won just two of the last ten competitive matches, and they have taken just two points from their last three home games in La Liga. If you stretch back further, the Basque side have won just three of their last nine games in San Sebastian.

This feels like the kind of game that Mourinho will relish, facing down a hostile crowd and protecting a first-leg advantage. You can back Roma/Draw Double Chance at 1.824/5, and I think that's a good price.

Back Roma/Draw Double Chance @

1.82

Hungarians to go down swinging

Ferencvaros v Bayer Leverkusen
Thursday 16 March, 20:00
Live on BT Sport

Bayer Leverkusen put one foot in the quarter-finals last week with a 2-0 win over Ferencvaros, and there is a chance that coach Xabi Alonso could rescue what's been a largely disappointing season for Die Werkself.

Sneaking into seventh spot in the Bundesliga isn't totally out of the question (they are ten points off the top six), and they do have the firepower to trouble most teams in the Europa League.

However, there are defensive problems for the Basque coach to solve, and for all of their attacking talent, Bayer are still a bit flaky.

As a result, 22 of their 33 games this term have featured at least three goals, and I suspect that will be the case here, with Ferencvaros trying to push to turn the tie around and leaving themselves exposed on the break. I'll back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.8910/11.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @

1.89

You can get a £5 free bet when you place a £5 Bet Builder on Italy vs England on Thursday. You must opt-in. T&Cs apply.