Europa League Final Tips: Back Watkins to fire favourites Villa to glory

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Wednesday 20 May, 20:00
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Freiburg a win away from sporting immortality

Until 1978, Freiburg had never reached the heady heights of German football's second tier. Under long-serving coach Volker Finke, the Black Forest outfit finally reached the promised land of the Bundesliga in 1993. For the next couple of decades SCF were a yo-yo clubs, bouncing between the top two tiers.

However, since they last had to win promotion to the top division, there's been a decade of growth and progress, underpinned by the move from the old Dreisamstadion (a tight and atmospheric home) to the much more modern Europa Park Stadion. Freiburg have remarkably become regular European qualifiers, and on Wednesday night in Istanbul they could win the first major trophy in club history.

The godfather of Freiburg is Christian Streich, who stepped down as coach in 2024 after 13 years leading the senior team and 29 years as a Freiburg coach overall (he started with the Under 19s in 1995). Streich found a great balance between home-grown talents and smart signings, and across his final five campaigns he delivered at least a top-ten finish in all of them. In 2022 the club reached a first ever major final, losing the DFB Pokal final on penalties to RB Leipzig in agonising fashion.

When Streich decided to step down as coach, it felt like an impossible act to follow, akin to Arsene Wenger's Arsenal exit or Sir Alex Ferguson's departure from Manchester United. Of course, Streich didn't have their success, but he was just as embedded in every part of the club.

However, Julian Schuster has delivered a seamless transition. The 41-year-old was Streich's captain, and later his assistant coach, and he has the intensity and natural authority of his predecessor.

Freiburg secured a Conference League spot in style on Saturday as they thrashed RB Leipzig 4-1, and now are just a game away from delivering Champions League football. Last season, Freiburg missed out on a Champions League spot on the final day of the Bundesliga season as they lost 3-1 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt.

Freiburg's success is about the collective, but they do have some stars. Midfielder Johan Manzambi has had a breakout season, the club's record scorer Vincenzo Grifo is a set-piece specialist, while centre-back Matthias Ginter was part of Germany's World Cup-winning squad in 2014 and has 51 caps. Croatian striker Igor Matanovic has been a surprise hit, netting 17 competitive goals this term, and the experienced Maxi Eggestein is a rock in midfield. Germany U21 keeper Noah Atubolu has a mistake in him, but is very talented.

Villa have lived up to favourites tag

From the moment Aston Villa qualified for this season's Europa League, it felt like they were the natural favourites to lift the trophy. Manager Unai Emery has already won the trophy a staggering four times, completing a hat-trick in successive years with Sevilla before winning it again with Villarreal in 2021.

Villa only missed out on top spot in the league phase courtesy of goal difference, and their progress through the knockout rounds has been fairly serene. A very good Lille side was prevented from scoring across two legs, an error-prone Bologna were thrashed 7-1 on aggregate, and there was a John McGinn-inspired comeback against Nottingham Forest in the semi-finals at Villa Park.

A Champions League spot has already been secured through Villa's league placing, with Friday night's 4-2 win over Liverpool nailing down at least a place in the top five. Villa go into this final with seven wins from the last 12 competitive matches, and they have players in fine form. Scotland international McGinn has three goals in his last three matches, Morgan Rogers has 12 goals and 10 assists across the Premier League and Europa League and Ollie Watkins has scored four goals in his last three matches.

Villa are still without midfielders Boubacar Kamara and Amadou Onana, so centre-back Victor Lindelof could once again be used as a deep midfielder.

End of the road for brave Freiburg

Freiburg deserve enormous respect for getting to this final, but this feels like a step too far. If you look at Freiburg's away games against the Bundesliga's big hitters this season, it doesn't make for pretty reading, as they have lost all seven away games against their fellow top-eight teams. Across those seven games they have scored just twice and conceded 20 goals.

I'll back Aston Villa to win and Ollie Watkins to score at 17/102.70 on the Sportsbook's Bet Builder. Watkins is timing his World Cup run superbly, he looks razor-sharp at the moment, and has 11 goals in his last 14 appearances.

Fouls market holds appeal

Freiburg's 20-year-old midfielder Johan Manzambi loves to carry the ball, and draws plenty of fouls. He has been fouled three times or more in 11 of his last 15 starts, so I'll back him to be fouled three times here.

I'll combine that with Villa defender Ezri Konsa to be fouled twice. The England man will have his hands full with the combative Matanovic, and he is smart enough to draw contact to ease the pressure. He recently drew a mind-boggling six fouls in a game against Burnley.

That double pays out at 19/102.90.

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