Thursday's Europa League Tips: Porto well priced to spoil Dyche's debut & back a 17/10 Villa victory

• Villa win to nil looks a great bet at 17/102.70

• Back Porto to spoil Dyche's Forest debut

• A Sturm stalemate for Celtic, more woe for Rangers at Brann

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Brann v Rangers

17:45 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports 2 & Discovery+

It's still somewhat of a surprise seeing Brann as 1/12.00 favourites against Rangers even with the turmoil the Scottish side have had this season - at least they've drawn the last two league games, which is something I suppose, but new boss Danny Rohl will need an immediate new manager bounce here as his side have lost five straight in Europe - conceding 14 goals in the process.

Brann, by contrast, have won their last five European home games including against Utrecht here last time out, but their opening late defeat in Lille was arguably an even better performance - so they're justified favourites and decent acca fodder.

For a better price here though we'll back them to win after the HT draw - as Brann's last three European games have been goalless after 40 minutes so they're quite slow starters, and Rohl should at least get some increased energy in the first half. Both sides have had a HT draw in oen of their two games so far.

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GA Eagles v Aston Villa

17:45 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports 1 & Discovery+

I think it's safe to say Aston Villa are back in business after a come-from-behind victory at Spurs made it five straight wins for Unai Emery's men, which includes two wins and two clean sheets in the Europa League. Go Ahead Eagles have won just one of five at home and lost to FCSB 1-0 here in their opener.

Only Emery making major changes could stop a comprehensive victory, but either way, Villa went to Rotterdam and came away with a 2-0 win over unbeaten Dutch league leaders Feyenoord in the last round and this is nowhere near as touch a test.

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Lyon v Basel

17:45 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports Extra

Conceding five goals in back-to-back Ligue 1 defeats isn't the best form for Lyon to bring into the game, but they've won their opening two Europa League games without conceding a goal so far. The question is whether they can get back to defensive basics for the visit of lively 4/15.00 underdogs Basel.

Lyon should still have enough to win, but with the Swiss side scoring in 14 of 15 games this season, including in their loss at Freiburg, I'll back them to find the net here but the French side to get back to winning ways.

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Genk v Real Betis

17:45 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports Extra

Genk beat Rangers at Ibrox but lost at home to Ferencvaros, which is why they're [2/] to beat Betis, who beat Ludogorets away and grabbed a late 2-2 with Nottinghan Forest, courtesy of a goal and assist from Antony.

And with three goals and two assists in his last four European games it's hard to see the Spaniards doing anything without the former Man Utd man being involved.

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Celta Vigo v Nice

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports Extra

Two defeats from two for Nice to take their winless streak to 14 in Europe overall, which is also the same amount of their winless streak in the Europa League proper, while away from home in this competition they've lost 11 games on the spin - so Celta Vigo should be very optimistic about their chances of winning, at 4/51.80.

The Spaniards aren't prolific winners, but they are prolific in drawing football matches - with seven stalemates in La Liga this season (all 1-1) including a run of five in a row at one stage. This is their fourth home game in a row with the last two in the league being, yes you guessed it, 1-1 draws. Nice beating Lyon at the weekend could be a huge boost and an away win will surely come in the competition this season - but given the wight of the stats it's hard to look passed yet another stalemate.

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Celtic v Sturm Graz

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports 2

Their 2-0 loss to Braga was Celtic's first home defeat in 11, but is part of a sketchy patch of form for Brendan Rodgers' side of just one win in five, culminating with defeat at Dundee on Sunday. So not many will be rushing to take the 1/21.50 on them here. 

Sturm Graz have already beaten Rangers in this competition this season but chances of the Old Firm double aren't great going on their run of six straight European away defeats, with no goals in the last three. Their only two away defeats this season have been in Europe but with Bodo-Glimt surprising in the Champions League and Midtjylland second in the Europa League standings perhaps those two were understandable.

I could be wrong but the vibes around Celtic aren't quite right at the minute, and the Austrians could take advantage and pinch a point.

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Lille v PAOK

20:00 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports Extra & Discovery+

A 2-1 win over Brann was a solid start and a 1-0 at Roma was a brilliant way to make it two from two for Lille. Drawing with PSG and winning at Nantes in their two games since keeps up the momentum so it's no surprise they're 4/71.57 against a PAOK side beaten 3-1 at Celtia Vigo three weeks ago.

The big question in these cases is goals. Both teams have scored in eight of Lille's past 10 European home games and in nine of PAOK's past 12 aways, so chances are we'll have goals at both ends again.

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Nottingham Forest v Porto

20:00 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports 1 & Discovery+

Straight in at the deep end for Sean Dyche - Forest's third manager of the season - but how quickly can he bring some order to the mess Ange Postecoglu left? The Australian was sacked just minutes after their fourth defeat on the spin against Chelsea, and the City Ground should at least be bouncing again as they look to give the new manager a warn welcome.

Their two Europa League games so far were typical 'Big Ange Ball' - scoring twice in both but drawing 2-2 at Betis and losing 3-2 at home to Midtjylland - but Dyche will take them back to the defend-first, counter attacking style that brought them so much success.

Forest are 29/202.45 favourites and they've certainly got enough talent in the squad to win this if they get back to basics, it just depends whether this game comes too soon for Dyche to put that back into place and for the players to emerge from what must be a whirlwind of a week.

And so a settled Porto side, who are unbeaten this season with 10 wins from 11 and two wins from two in the Europa League, are worth backing to spoil the Dyche party. 

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Malmo v Dinamo Zagreb

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+

Nothing's ever easy in Europe but in this top-versus-bottom meeting Dinamo Zagreb have given us every reason to trust them to win in Malmo at what could be a gift of a price of 29/202.45 given the home side's struggles.

Dinamo top the Europa League standings with two 3-1 wins, and while Fenerbahce and Maccabi Tel Aviv aren't top-rate opposition, they're good enough results up against Malmo's two defeats to Ludogorets (2-1) and Viktoria Plzen (3-0). Dinamo top the Croatian league while Malmo have just one win in five domestically.

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Roma v Plzen

20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports Extra

Viktoria Plzen are actually unbeaten so far and sit above Roma after a draw with Ferencvaros and win over Malmo, so yes, a kind fixture list and now it's a much bigger test for the Czechs heading to Rome with the hosts needing a bounce back after losing to Lille at the Stadio Olimpico in the last round.

So the Serie A giants are naturally 3/101.30 but they have lost three of four at home - obviously Torino, Inter Milan and even Lille are a class above Plzen but that won't help home confidence. There's usually been goals in both these sides' games in Europe, but at home in all competitions Roma have mustered just three goals in five games, drawing three blanks, so even though a home win is expected we're keep expectations low.

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