Brighton v Marseille: Back Mitoma in 5/2 Bet Builder

• Brighton to leapfrog leaders Marseille in qualification

• Kaoru Mitoma and João Pedro to spark victory

• Read Betfair's new 90 minute payout offer here

Brighton & Hove Albion v Marseille
Thursday 14th December, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 2

A Seagulls win can aid their schedule

Both of these teams will still be in the competition after Thursday night, but in what capacity is the question. Anything but a defeat for Marseille sends them through as group winners, while Brighton will have to win to avoid having to go through the play-off round.

It perhaps goes without saying that Roberto De Zerbi will be wanting to go through as group winners, but given their current slate of injuries, the prospect of not having to add an extra two games to their schedule - against a team coming out of the Champions League - will add even more urgency on top of that.

Indeed, there haven't been many games this season where Brighton and De Zerbi have been in a position to focus squarely on a result, without thinking too much about tomorrow. The Italian has made 107 changes to his starting XI across 22 fixtures this term, in order to manage their fixture congestion and protect his players.

Against Marseille, however, the Italian might well allow himself to think a little more short-term. An extra effort now might mean reduced efforts further down the line, assuming his side can win here.

Brighton may have lacked the consistency of last season so far, but the game scenario here won't be foreign to them. At the Amex Stadium, the Seagulls are still capable of laying it on their opponent and forcing them into a defensive shell. They've averaged 65% possession and two goals per game at home this term, while outshooting their opponents by 91 across 11 games (197-106).

Gattuso's Marseille in unknown territory

Marseille, meanwhile, come into this game in their best moment of the season. They've won each of their last four matches and only lost one of their last nine, but the variable here will be in how much Gennaro Gattuso alters his game plan. An end-to-end game here would be an almighty risk with what's on the line.

The French side's games in the Europa League this season have seen a total xG of 21.6, the most of any team. In short, the action has been frequent at both ends and Marseille have traded blows throughout. Now with a team in front of them who are capable - and required - to dominate the game on the attacking end, can Gattuso's side flip the defensive switch?

The Italian has cultivated a spirited team, but they've not been used to being starved of the ball. They've been free-scoring and energetic in attack, and this is a game that will demand a different side to them; one more concerned with stability.

All in all, I'll take Brighton to get over the line with a victory. On an evening that could well turn into attack v defence, their force of play can win out in a do-or-die game, regardless of which opponent comes to the Amex.

Marseille will fight hard and do everything they can - no doubt including plenty of fouls and cutting of momentum - but with the necessity to win, the Seagulls can make it another special night in Europe.

Mitoma and João Pedro to lead the charge

The master of versatility, Pascal Groß, is the only player who's played more minutes for Brighton than Kaoru Mitoma (1,638) this season. Even with De Zerbi's ultra-high rate of rotations, he has still been desperate to count on the Japanese winger as much as possible.

In a game like this one, where the order of the day for Brighton is to break down a team for whom a point is enough, Mitoma represents their best chance of creating openings through solo play. The Seagulls will take him into the final third and then let him go to work.

Along with Mitoma, Brighton's man in the Europa League has been João Pedro - the joint-top scorer in the competition (5). Owing much to his work in Europe this season, the Brazilian is also the club's top scorer across all competitions this term (10).

Though the cynics might point to João Pedro having notched six of his goals from the penalty spot, we can't say they've been merely convenient chances to net. The 22-year-old has won five penalties himself across all competitions this term, more than any other Premier League player.

From distinct positions, expect the Brazilian and Mitoma to spark Brighton's push for top spot in the Europa League here.

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