Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest: Back Villans to rack up the corners at 12/1

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Thursday, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 1

Emery only has eyes for the Europa League

Unai Emery caught some flack in the Premier League at the weekend after making six changes ahead of Aston Villa's game with Tottenham.

The Villans lost, so too did West Ham which meant Spurs moved out of the relegation zone at the expense of the Hammers. Unsurprisingly, West Ham fans are a bit miffed but I think it's a luxury Emery has earnt.

Domestically, his side are fifth which is good enough for Champions League qualification, they are level on points with Liverpool and six ahead of Bournemouth in sixth.

Why shouldn't he get to rest and rotate ahead of a European semi-final? He's got a reputation on the continent to maintain afterall.

It wasn't like he fielded a completely different team either. Emi Martinez, Matty Cash, Youri Tielemans and Morgan Rogers all played the 90 minutes. Ollie Watkins and Emi Buendia came off the bench as well. 

Pau Torres and Ezri Konsa were unused substitutes and John McGinn and Andre Onana weren't in the squad. 

Managing their minutes could be crucial here. At the half way stage Villa are a goal down so they will need their big hitters to be at it on Thursday if they are going to turn this one around and quality. 

Red-hot Gibbs-White an injury doubt?

Vítor Pereira took a similar approach to Emery's for his side's Premier League game against Chelsea on Monday. 

He made eight changes from the side which beat Sunderland 5-0 in their previous top flight game. 

It didn't matter anyway as Forest won 3-1 to move onto 42 points and six points clear of West Ham in 18th. 

With three games and nine points to play for, although they aren't mathematically safe quotes of 80/181.00 for them to be relegated with the Sportsbook suggests their sole focus can shift to this competition for the remainder of the campaign. 

They didn't come through Monday's game unscathed though. 

Morgan Gibbs-White required stitches and had to be substituted after a hefty collision for Blues goalkeeper Robert Sanchez. 

Gibbs-White has scored or assisted 16 goals in 26 appearances this year so it will be a major blow if he isn't fit to start on Thursday. 

Villans worthy favourites for the win

With Nottingham Forest a goal up on aggregate, it is not a surprise to see them as 4/61.67 favourites with the Sportsbook To Qualify Market but 7/24.50 outsiders in the Match Odds Market.

Hosts Aston Villa are 8/111.73 favourites to win the game and 23/202.15 to qualify. 

The draw is 11/43.75 which could tempt a few considering two of the last six Europa League semi-final second legs have ended all-square.

I'm more tempted by the 2.186/5 about Aston Villa To Win with the Betfair Exchange.

There's the dynamic of this second leg, Villa's home form and their manager's experience to lean on here.

There's no denying, Forest are coming into this game in red hot form. They are 10 unbeaten, winning their last five and they've kept clean sheets in half of their games over that sample. 

The underlying data suggests they've been a little fortunate though. 

They've scored 21 goals in those matches from an xG of 14.03 (+6.97) and conceded five times from an xGA of 11.13 (-6.13). 

Then consider they could be without the in-form Gibbs-White and it is tricky to make a case for the visitors.

Sure, Villa have lost their last three on the spin but they have won 17 of 25 games at Villa Park this term. 

They've dropped points against Newcastle twice but had men sent off in each game, bogey-team Crystal Palace, Everton, Brentford and Tottenham on Sunday. 

This is Emery's seventh Europa League semi final, his sides have made the final on five of his previous six attempts. 

He simply loves this competition. 

Corner the value with three Villa v Forest bets up to 12/113.00

The Aston Villa corner lines are worth considering here given how this second leg is poised. 

The Villans need to win by one goal to take this game to extra time and win by two goals to reach the final. If they fail to score, they're out. 

Stating the obvious there but it means at some point Villa will have to throw caution to the wind and go for this game which brings corners into play.

Villa have had at least five corners in each of their last three games and seven in the first leg

On their own patch, they have averaged 5.52 corners per game this season and had at least four corners in 80% of those games. 

Interestingly, they've trailed at home at half-time five times this term and racked up 41 corners in those games. That's an average of 8.2 and they hit double figures in two of those games.

Last season, against PSG in the Champions League in the quarter-final second leg. Villa were 3-1 down on aggregate and had five corners and 15 shots in the second leg. 

I think it is worth considering every line from Aston Vills to have over 6.5 corners at 3/41.75 up to them having over 12.5 corners at 12/113.00. 

I'll be touting the hosts to have over 7.5 corners, over 9.5 corners and over 12.5 corners here. 

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