UEFA Europa Conference League

Olympiakos v Fiorentina: Back Beltran in 22/1 Bet Builder

Fiorentina boss Vincenzo Italiano
Fiorentina boss Vincenzo Italiano can atone for last year's final loss

Dave Tindall is backing last year's beaten finalists Fiorentina to outscore Olympiakos in the final of the Europea Conference League on Wednesday night...

  • The game is being staged in Greece but at the home of rivals AEK

  • Fiorentina have been in the goals and can outscore the Greeks

  • Find 22/123.00 Bet Builder tip below

Olympiakos v Fiorentina
Wednesday May 29, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

'Home advantage' for Greeks

On hearing that the final takes place in Greece, this appears on first glance like one of those fairytale occasions when a team has won through to a European final played in their own stadium.

Not quite. Olympiakos will certainly be familiar with the venue but the AEK Arena is the home ground of their fierce rivals. It holds 32,500 but, to be fair, it's not that familiar to some AEK fans either having only opened (on the site of their former ground) in 2022.

Either way, Olympiakos will have huge local support as their own ground is only 15km away.

Olympiakos remain clear underdogs to win at 3.3512/5 on the Exchange but the local angle would appear to level the playing field somewhat.

Italians looking for redemption

Fiorentina have some unfinished business in this competition having lost to West Ham 2-1 in last year's final. That was in Prague and the image of Jarrod Bowen racing through to score in the 90th minute is one they'll want to erase.

Although no Italian clubs made any impression in the Champions League, Atalanta pulled off a real coup by sinking the seemingly unbeaten Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 in the final of the Europa League. Xabi Alonso's team had beaten another Italian team, Roma, in the semis. Roma, in turn, had seen off AC Milan in the last eight.

In short, Italian teams are strong at this level and it's no surprise to see Fiorentina trading as clear 2.486/4 favourites in the match market. The 90 minutes Draw is 3.39/4.

Fiorentina in the goals

Fiorentina certainly had a domestic wobble across March and April and, due to that, they'll only finish eighth in Serie A this season (they have one final game to play after this final).

But starting out with a 2-0 win at Salernitana on April 21, the Viola have been in decent nick with five wins, two draws and two defeats (both away).

They've scored plenty of goals too, finding the net 20 times in that nine-game run. On the downside they haven't managed a clean sheet in any of their last eight, edging through their semi with 3-2 and 1-1 scorelines against Belgians Club Brugge.

Olympiakos are third in the Greek Super League, six points behind leaders PAOK Salonika, and are being described as 'in-form' after two excellent results against Aston Villa in the semi-finals.

Villa finished fourth in the Premier League so that 6-2 aggegrate victory looks superb. But here's a question: did they run into Villa at the right time?

Unai Emery's men seemed to run out of gas down the stretch and those two losses to Olympiakos formed part of a six-game winless run (four defeats) that ended in a 5-0 final day thumping at Crystal Palace.

Olympiakos have slightly cooled since the highs of those wins over Villa, losing one, winning one and drawing 2-2 at Panathinaikos last time out.

It's easy to argue this one either way and the location of the game adds a layer of intrigue. But Olympiakos have lost six of their last seven against Italian teams and I expect that to continue in what could be boss Vincenzo Italiano's final game for Fiorentina.

Looking at recent form both domestically and in Europe suggests goals look a certainty and I'll take Fiorentina to atone for last year's final loss by scoring more of them. That leads to the Match Odds and BTTS market and Fiorentina at a tasty 9/25.50.

Euro specialists worth a Bet Builder

With goals expected, that gives plenty of scope for Bet Builders. Let's start by looking at who's found the net for Fiorentina in the nine-match run that's yielded 20 goals.

The main thing to note is that they've had 13 different scorers so they spread the load.

The one that appeals is Argentine Lucas Beltran at 4/15.00. He scored freely for River Plate before making the move to Europe and has hit double figures for Fiorentina since his arrival in August.

Crucially, he's also their top scorer in Europe this season with four and that included a penalty in the semi-final, second leg against Brugge. He's 4/15.00 anytime.

Villa fans will know all about Ayoub El Kaabi after the Moroccan scored five times across those two semi-final matches.

He has 33 for the season in club colours so the 2/13.00 anytime is worth a look. Doubling El Kaabi up with Beltran produces a Bet Builder of around 13/114.00. Add in Over 3.5 goals - a reasonable ask - and the BB increases to 22/123.00.

Now read Kevin Hatchard's Euro 2024 Golden Boot player profile piece.

Recommended bets

Staked: 48pts

Returned: 29.4pts

P/L: -18.6pts

2022/2023 P/L: +£16.79
2021/2022 P/L: +£8.69
2020/2021 P/L: +£3.06

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