Europa Conference League Playoff Second Leg Tips: Eagles' goal-getter to soar

• In-form Egyptian can net us a winner

• Warsaw clash should yield entertainment

• Bodo Glimt and Ajax to play out another thriller

• Ludogorets can progress with home win

Omar-vellous chance that striker scores

Eintracht Frankfurt v Union Saint-Gilloise
Thursday 22 February, 20:00

Giving up leads has become a nasty habit for Eintracht Frankfurt. They went 2-0 up at Union Saint-Gilloise last week before having to settle for a 2-2 draw, and on Sunday in the Bundesliga they led three times at Freiburg, but were pegged back each and every time in a pulsating 3-3 draw.

At least the Eagles are scoring goals. They were a bit shot-shy in the early weeks of new coach Dino Toppmöller's reign, but the goals have started to flow, despite the loss of on-loan Wolves striker Sasa Kalajdzic to the third ACL injury of his career. Frankfurt have scored 12 goals in their last eight competitive games.

One constant in Eintracht's season has been the goal threat carried by Egypt striker Omar Marmoush. The former Wolfsburg and Stuttgart forward has banged in 15 goals for club and country, and has found the net in three of his last six appearances.

Union have conceded multiple goals in five of their last seven competitive games, and at 2/1 to score at any time, Marmoush just can't be ignored.

Polish pandemonium on the cards

Legia Warsaw v Molde
Thursday 22 February, 20:00

These two played out a thriller in Norway last week. Molde raced into a 3-0 lead inside 24 minutes (surprising considering their current lack of competitive football), but were then dragged back to a 3-2 scoreline, as Polish giants Legia netted twice in the last half-hour.

That means four of Legia's seven Europa Conference League games have featured at least three goals, and they have now scored at least twice on nine separate occasions in this season's UECL (including qualifiers). They put three goals past Premier League high-flyers Aston Villa, and scored four goals over two legs against Danish side Midtjylland.

Molde saw five of their six Europa League group games feature at least three goals, and they themselves found the net in five of those six outings. Including the recent Atlantic Cup, Molde have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land in 15 of their last 17 games.

It seems to me that backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.84/5 is a sensible play.

Arctic setting will freeze defences

Bodo Glimt v Ajax
Thursday 22 February, 17:45

This tie might have nearly been over had Ajax not mounted a stirring late comeback, in which they struck twice in the dying moments to turn a 2-0 deficit into a 2-2 draw. Bodo Glimt played surprisingly well considering their lack of competitive football (the Norwegian season has finished), and they will fancy their chances of winning what is effectively now a one-off clash.

Bodo Glimt, the newly crowned Norwegian champions, have won their last six home games in all competitions. In their Conference League group they won home games against Besiktas and Lugano, but lost 1-0 to Club Brugge.
The first leg had four goals, and we might see a similarly open showdown here. Eight of Bodo Glimt's last 13 competitive matches have featured at least four goals, while if you look at Ajax, 13 of their last 16 outings in all competitions have featured four goals or more.

Over 3.5 Goals seems reasonably priced at 2.111/10.

Ludo to win their game

Ludogorets v Servette
Thursday 22 February, 17:45

Perennial Bulgarian champions Ludogorets played out a goalless draw in Switzerland against Servette last week, and now they are in pole position to reach the last 16. Georgi Dermendzhiev's team have won eight of their last nine home matches in all competitions, and they are top of the league on goal difference.

Servette had 23 goal attempts last week, but only four of those were on target, and their away form is a bit hit-and-miss. The current second-placed team in the Swiss Super League have won just one of their last six away matches in all competitions, and in the Europa League they lost 4-0 at both Roma and Slavia Prague, and played out a 1-1 draw at Sheriff.

Ludogorets have lots of European experience, and their home form is strong. I'm pleasantly surprised to see them trading at 2.0811/10 to win the second leg, so that's the avenue I'll take.

Now read Kev's Europa League tipsheet, and why he's backing Roma to progress under De Rossi!