Wales' fate already looks to have been sealed
11/53.20 Turkey have been impressive on the road
Brennan Johnson should start and worth a look
Wales v Turkey
Tuesday November 21, 19:45
Live on S4C Online, Viaplay Sports 1 & S4C
Welsh needing an unlikely favour
The good Welsh folk beneath the bucket hats could still be celebrating wildly if their team beat Turkey in Tuesday night's final Euro 2024 qualifer. But, more likely, this could be an evening of what might have been.
After drawing 1-1 in Armenia at the weekend, Wales' qualification fate is now out of their hands. It means if Croatia win at home to Armenia - they're just 1/81.12 to to do - the 2018 World Cup finalists will be the ones guaranteed a place in next summer's finals in Germany.
It's not all over for Wales as an alternative route remains open through the playoffs. But having beaten Croatia 2-1 at home last month, it's a huge source of frustration that they almost certainly won't get full reward from what looked like a pivotal win.
Turkey in confident mood
Let's be honest, Wales' failure to beat Armenia at the weekend may be redundant anyway given that victory over this Turkish side is a long way from guaranteed.
Turkey are already qualified having accumulated 16 points from their seven group games via five wins, a draw and just a single defeat. That loss came in a 2-0 home reverse against Croatia back in March.
The Turks gained revenge with a 1-0 win in Croatia last month and since then they've cruised to a 4-0 victory win over Latvia and added an impressive 3-2 friendly win away to Germany at the weekend.
Visitors the value bet
Wales have to be respected at home and on the face of it have incentive too. How long that incentive will last if news comes through that Croatia are 2-0 up remains very open to doubt.
Nevertheless, the market expects a home win and Wales are 23/20 to keep up their end of the bargain. The Draw is 5/23.50 while Turkey are 11/53.20 to round off their successful qualifying campaign with another three points.
Those odds surprise me. Turkey head to Wales on the back of their first win in Germany for 72 years. That was achieved with a rotated team so there will be plenty of fresh legs for this task.
Since what can only be desecribed as the disgrace of a 2-1 defeat in the Faroe Islands, Turkey have won four of their last five away games. The only defeat in that run was a 4-2 loss to a very in-form Japan team.
With Croatia and Germany their latest two road scalps, Vincenzo Montella's side fear no-one and Turkey are simply too big against a Welsh side who could get more deflated as the evening goes on with Croatia likely to be doing the business against Armenia.
Johnson can score in losing cause
Turkey have shared the goals around in recent matches with their last 10 being scored by nine different players. That makes it hard to select a visiting player for a Bet Builder.
But there is a Welsh player I like - Brennan Johnson. The Spurs man was only a sub against Armenia but has every chance of being given the nod by Rob Page here.
Johnson scored for Tottenham in his last Premier League start and is due a goal for his country after back-to-back strikes against Belgium and the Netherlands last summer.
And it's certainly feasible that Johnson could net in a Wales defeat given that Turkey have shipped at least one goal in three of their last four away wins.
Johnson to score anytime and Turkey to win pays 23/124.00 on the Bet Builder and could be worth a look.
But the main bet here is a simple one: Turkey to win and show why they're likely to regain their status as 'dark horses' when the finals come around in the summer.