Wales v Croatia: Back visitors to burst the Welsh balloon

• Croatia yet to concede on the road

• Wales have only beaten Latvia in qualifying

• Kovacic a forceful presence in midfield

Wales v Croatia
Sunday 15 October, 19:45
Live on ViaPlay Sports 1

Wales can still rescue Euro dream

It's fair to say that Wales' bid to qualify for Euro 2024 has been something of a rollercoaster. Robert Page's side began the campaign with a highly creditable 1-1 draw in Croatia, as Ipswich Town's Nathan Broadhead grabbed a late leveller. A nervy 1-0 win over Latvia was followed by a dismal 4-2 home loss to Armenia, and a 2-0 defeat in Turkey that featured a wonder goal from recent Real Madrid recruit Arda Guler.

Wales played solidly in a 2-0 win in Riga against Latvia, and they find themselves just three points behind second-placed Croatia going into Sunday's showdown. A defeat would leave Wales' hopes of a top-two finish hanging by a thread, but all is not lost even then, as Wales' decent record in the Nations League means they have a playoff route to Germany.

The big concern for Page is that the only wins Wales have picked up in the last 15 internationals have been against Latvia and Gibraltar. Gareth Bale's retirement took away a game-changing force, and while Tottenham forward Brennan Johnson is undoubtedly a rising star and Aaron Ramsey remains a fine player, star quality in generally thin on the ground. When you compare the Wales squad to a side like Croatia, that is packed with elite talent, the true challenge facing Page is clear to see.

And yet this is a golden era for the principality. I grew up in an era of thin gruel for Wales, with Paul Bodin smacking the crossbar against Romania and Mark Hughes leading his side to a playoff defeat against Russia twenty years ago. Euro 2016 was Wales' first ever appearance at the finals of a European Championship, and they remarkably reached the semi-finals, before then qualifying for Euro 2020. A first World Cup finals appearance since 1958 followed - these are heady days indeed.

Charlie Savage, 20-year-old son of player-turned-pundit Robbie, is pushing to be involved after impressing in the 4-0 win over Gibraltar. Ramsey is injured, so Ben Davies is likely to once again skipper the side.

Croatia stung by Turkish raid

Croatia's bid to qualify for Euro 2024 via the group stage has been made more uncomfortable by their recent 1-0 home defeat to Turkey. The World Cup semi-finalists struggled to create clear-cut chances across the 90 minutes, and were undone by a rush of blood from keeper Dominik Livakovic, as him haring out of his penalty area allowed Bar Alper Yilmaz to lift the ball into a completely unguarded net.

Croatia still have an extraordinary amount of quality and experience in midfield, with Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic and Mateo Kovacic all starting against Turkey. Wolfsburg's Lovro Majer is still having to wait patiently to break through the old guard, although he came close to a vital goal in midweek (we'll never know if he was onside or offside, but his effort was scrambled off the line in any case). A serious injury to Tottenham's Ivan Perisic has removed one wise old head, but it's a squad that still has the institutional knowhow gained from reaching a World Cup final in 2018 and a semi-final four years later.

It's worth noting that Croatia were just a few penalty kicks away from winning the Nations League in June, losing the final to Spain after a goalless draw, so this is still a formidable side. Zlatko Dalic's men have won away to Turkey and Armenia in these qualifiers, keeping clean sheets on both occasions.

Hoffenheim forward Andrej Kramaric is injured, and has been joined on the sidelines by Luka Ivanusec. Promising Augsburg striker Dion Beljo hopes to start, after making his debut against Turkey.

Croatia can withstand heat of Cardiff cauldron

Wales simply aren't winning games consistently, and even though they have tended to rise to the occasion under Page, the absence of Bale and Ramsey is a big problem. It feels like a transitional period for Wales, and they are up against experienced operators who know how to take the sting out of games by keeping possession for long spells.

I'll use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to back Croatia/Draw Double Chance, Under 3.5 Goals and Mateo Kovacic to have at least one shot at 2.1411/10. Manchester City midfielder Kovacic has attempted at least one shot in six of his ten games for club and country this season. He's had at least one goal attempt in nine of his last 14 caps.