Serbia v England: Back goals in Gelsenkirchen & 3/1 fouls shout

• Serbia lead BTTS stats in Euro qualifying

• Back England win but goals at both ends at 23/103.30

• Back 3/14.00 shot on Serbian midfielder's fouls

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England Superboost

The two main men who can propel England to glory this summer are captain Harry Kane and wonderkid Jude Bellingham. They will be at the forefront for the Three Lions.

We know this, and so do the opposition, who will be looking to stop them both by any means necessary.

has been fouled 24 times in his last 20 England starts, and multiple times eight of his last 13 as he drops deep to pick up the ball and make things happen. His numbers heightened during the last major tournament too, winning nine fouls in just five games in Qatar.

Bellingham, meanwhile, averages 2.09 fouls won per 90 for England, and has been fouled 4+ times in each of his last three caps, and 20 times in just seven recent games.

Together, they have been fouled a combined 55 times in their last 15 England games!

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Serbia v England
Sunday 16 June, 20:00 kick-off
Live on BBC One

Here we go then, England kick-off their Euro 2024 campaign with a tricky test against Serbia - with Gareth Southgate's side 7/24.50 outright favourites to lift the trophy in Germany next month.

And you can see why with a squad containing Harry Kane - 5/16.00 for the Golden Boot at the Euros - as he returns to Germany after a bagful of Bundesliga goals for Bayern, Premier League Player of the Season Phil Foden, and Jude Bellingham, fresh off La Liga and Champions League glory with Real Madrid.

Bellingham has the name, the fame and the game to scoop major awards should England go far - being just 3/14.00 for Young Player of the Tournament and 9/110.00 for Player of the Tournament, with the only doubt on him being if fatigue will set in after such a long season.

Serbia are 66/167.00 tournament outsiders, but as I've detailed in my Euro 2024 Dark Horses special they've got enough quality to cause a few upsets, especially going forward with Aleksandar Mitrovic, Dusan Vlahovic, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and skipper Dusan Tadic.

They're 13/27.50 to cause an immediate upset and beat the Three Lions, which after that Wembley loss to Iceland will see some attention - but England are still big match favourites at 4/91.44 to win in Gelsenkirchen.

Back both teams to score

Serbia are a bit like England in that they're front-loaded and not so blessed in defensive quality as they are up top, so we've got potential for a few goals here and leads us to our first bet of the Euros which is both teams to score at 9/101.90.

Even if John Stones' illness was nothing more than a dodgy bratwurst, he's had plenty of injury problems and will be without preferred partner Harry Maguire - and with someone as sharp as Mitrovic, who has 58 international goals, lurking any defensive lapse will be punished.

Uefa European Championship Qualifiers - Both Teams to Score

And the stats back this up as the Serbs had the highest both teams to score percentage in the Euro qualifiers - and there's surely no way they're keeping England's goal-packed side out for 90 minutes.

They're always likely to score though - with Serbia finding the net in all eight matches in qualifying to make it 22 straight games in Euro and World Cup qualifying where they've managed to score.

England's defence is far from settled and in front of them Declan Rice could have any one of Conor Gallagher, Kobee Mainoo or Trent Alexander-Arnold alongside him depending on how adventurous Southgate wants to be.

Up top England should still have too much, the score draw at 9/25.50 is the other bet that comes into play, but overall I'm happy to back the Three Lions to get off to a winning start.

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Tadic tops for assists & back Savic in fouls market

Kane's the 1/12.00 favourite to score naturally with Phil Foden 23/103.30, Bellingham 13/53.60 and a usually popular pick Bukayo Saka at 21/103.10 - but the Arsenal man's fitness of late has been an issue.

Serbia's Tadic is the man to side with for them in terms of creativity, with four assists in qualifying he also created the second-most chances behind only Bruno Fernandes.

He's my 50/151.00 each-way shout for most tournament assists and he's 5/16.00 for an assist against England.

Tadic is also on the set pieces and helped Serbia to score the highest percentage of headed goals (5 of 15) of anyone during qualifiers - and we can back Mitrovic at 8/19.00 to score a header as 10 of his last 19 Serbia goals have been with his head.

He's also 7/42.75 to have a headed shot on target.

Uefa European Championship Qualifiers - Top 5 Chances Created

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A market I like for this tournament is the 'foul involvement' market, backing players to be fouled and commit fouls, and these two teams should offer up plenty of those.

Kane, Saka and Bellingham are worth looking at here as they'll get some treatment from thr Serbian defence, but preference is on the 3/14.00 on Sergej Milinkovic-Savic to have 5+ foul involvements.

He was involved in 20 fouls in qualifying and in although operating in a variety of midfield roles he'll have to defend plenty as England will have most of the ball - which brings him into contact with that England trio mentioned above, all of which win a lot of fouls.

The former Lazio man now plays in Saudi Arabia as well so it won't be a surprise if he's just a step off the pace at the start of the tournament.

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Listen to Football...Only Bettor - Euro 2024 Day Three

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Now Read Paul's Group C stat pack with best bets for England, Denmark, Serbia & Slovenia

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