Opta Predicts Spain v England: Euro 2024 Final to go down to the wire

• Draw after 90mins looks the way to play it

• Foden to be England's main man in final

• Olmo and Ruiz the big threats for Spain at the prices

• Corners and fouls markets worth a second look

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Spain v England SuperBoost

England have made it to back-to-back European Championship finals and Betfair are offering up a SuperBoost to mark the occasion.

English football fans all know about Chelsea's Marc Cucurella, who has committed six fouls at Euro 2024 so far, and managing at least one offence in each of his five appearances at the tournament.

England (84) are the most fouled team in Germany, and boast Jude Bellingham (14) and Harry Kane (11) as two of the top four most fouled players in the competition.

He will also be most likely directly up against Arsenal's Bukayo Saka, who has won 10 fouls at the tournament so far, at 1.7 per 90, and, for whom he has previous with.

In both Arsenal v Chelsea meetings in the Premier League last season, Cucurella committed two fouls directly on Bukayo Saka in each game, and was involved in 10 fouls across the two matches (fouls won + fouls conceded).

England have qualified for their second consecutive European Championship final and, in doing so, their first-ever major tournament final on foreign soil.

They came from behind to beat the Netherlands 2-1 in Dortmund on Wednesday and will face Spain in Berlin on Sunday night. Drink. It. In.

But, just like every other England game at Euro 2024, there was plenty from their performance that we can use to inform our bets going into Sunday's match.

Slow starters

While England have often been accused of scoring early and inviting pressure by sitting back on their lead, that narrative seems to have flipped in the knockout stages of Euro 2024.

A worrying trend from their matches so far has been that they have had to go behind in matches before they have started playing well.

England are, in fact, the first team in history to qualify for the final of a European Championship having trailed in both the quarter-final and semi-final. They also spent 70 minutes losing against Slovakia in the round of 16.

While Spain have suffered from a similar fate in two of their matches - they went behind against both Georgia and France in the round of 16 and semi-final respectively - they responded emphatically both times. They went on to beat Georgia 4-1, while they went ahead against France within 16 minutes of falling behind.

England, meanwhile, have spent just five minutes of stoppage time against the Netherlands actually in the lead of any match during normal time in the knockout stage.

As a result, Spain to score first looks a good bet at [10/11]. They are also available to win the first half at [21/10].

In terms of goalscorers for Spain, plenty will be drawn towards Dani Olmo at [4/1] and justifiably so. The RB Leipzig forward is level at the top of the Golden Boot standings with Harry Kane on three goals. He has scored two in two since coming into the team to replace Pedri and has also averaged three shots per 90 minutes, which is equal-first among any players still active at the tournament.

But there is better value to be had in backing Fabian Ruiz to score at [8/1]. The creative midfielder has already scored two goals and provided two assists. He is also level on three shots per 90 minutes with Olmo, while his attempts at goal have generated a higher xG.

England's bouncebackability

One of England's strengths at Euro 2024 and, more pertinently, in the knockout stage of the tournament has been their resilience and ability to respond well to setbacks.

As much was evident against the Netherlands given that they dominated play after Xavi Simons' early goal and were much the better team for the rest of the first half after going behind.

That mental strength has been on show in previous matches as well, with England having equalised five minutes after going behind against Switzerland and through a 95th-minute overhead kick against Slovakia.

Should they go behind again in the final, there is a decent body of evidence to suggest they will get back into it. As a result, both teams to score looks a good bet at [21/20].

When picking a goalscorer for England, look no further than Phil Foden at [9/2]. Foden is yet to get off the mark and has had a frustrating tournament, but was arguably his side's best player in the first half of their semi-final victory.

He looks much more comfortable playing in a no.10 role and that was borne out in his numbers. Foden had a 100% pass success rate during the match and attempted three shots - more than any other player. One of those efforts hit the post, while another was stopped on the line.

Foden has now hit the goal frame twice at the tournament, while he is averaging the second-most shots per game in the England squad behind Harry Kane.

We're in it for the long haul

In the match preview for the Netherlands v England, we pointed out that 73% of England's knockout matches at major tournaments since 1980 had gone to extra time. While that number is a little lower following Wednesday night, the trend still stands up.

Were it not for Ollie Watkins' 90th-minute winner, we would have been going the distance once more. It is also worth pointing out that England's last appearance in the European Championship final was settled on penalties.

Such are the nature of major tournament finals, and the enormity of what is at stake, it can lead to matches degenerating into cagey football with players unwilling to take risks for fear of making a mistake. Since 1996, five out of seven European Championship finals have ended in a draw after 90 minutes.

Should the match play out as expected, another period of extra time would be no surprise. The draw after 90 minutes is priced at 8/5 in the match odds 90 market.

Corners and fouls

Another market worth looking at when putting together a bet builder is corners, or England's lack thereof.

The Three Lions did not have a single corner during their match against the Netherlands, which was the third time at the tournament they have had fewer than three in a match.

Given that Spain are likely to dictate the majority of the play here and have more of the ball - they have averaged 58% possession throughout Euro 2024 - that would suggest the trend will continue. Under 2.5 England corners can be backed at [7/5].

Elsewhere, Alvaro Morata's disciplinary record could prove profitable.

Morata has given away more fouls (12) than any other player at the tournament in six matches. He is [11/10] to commit two or more fouls against England, while he is [9/2] to pick up his second booking of the tournament.

Jude Bellingham, meanwhile, has been fouled 14 times at Euro 2024 - more than any other player. He is [8/5] to be fouled three or more times.

Now read Spain v England Euro 2024 Final Tips: Back Three Lions for Euro glory & stars to shine in 6/1 special