Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Last 16 Stat Pack: Expect beautiful chaos in Austria v Turkey with 11/10 shot

Day 19 sees Romania v Netherlands and Austria v Turkey at Euro 2024

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - digs through the data and stats to unleash two bets as the final games of the round of 16 take place at Euro 2024...


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Romania v Netherlands (17:00) - Under cards stands out in Dutch stroll

Romania defied some pretty mediocre underlying numbers to qualify as a group winner. It showcases the flaws in the formula of this tournament where one win is enough to book your last 16 ticket. Going forward, they have created the fewest big chances (1) - a metric defined by Opta - to the backdrop of a per 90 expected goals tally of just 0.96 which is the fourth worst of any team at the tournament.

Having finished third, Netherlands won't believe their luck to have bagged such a winnable fixture. They are 1.232/9 on the Exchange to qualify.

A one-sided game could be on the way and these types of game usually lead to low card counts. Netherlands are a team anyway that rarely get involved in the naughty stuff - that is seen by their tournament ranking of 17th for ball recoveries and 21st for duels won.

There have been just 15 total cards shown in their last nine matches to an average of 1.6. The under 3.5 cards at 21/202.05 line looks worth a a small interest in a low key betting heat.


Austria v Turkey (20:00) - Shots frenzy expected in potential classic

Those of us on the 80.079/1 prices about Austria are entitled to dream a little over the next week or so. Not only have Ralf Rangnick's side showed themselves to be a force, they've also landed in the weaker half of the draw after playing no-fear football that saw them top the group.

Turkey could be a perfect opponent for Austria. Rangnick's team want chaos, they thrive off tempo and transitions. And you can guarantee Turkey won't take a backwards step. After some cagey, ultimately dull, last 16 matches, this one has all the ingredients to be a classic.

Austria will press hard and fast while Turkey are full of outstanding and exciting individual players in attack that are allowed to express themselves. It just screams goals, cards and shots. Take your pick on your chosen method of attack.

Mine is the total shots line which has been set at 27 or more by the Sportsbook at 11/102.11. Turkey's matches are averaging 29 shots per 90 minutes in their last 13 competitive matches and there will be no holding back from Austria from the first whistle.


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