Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Day Three Stat Pack: Dangerous Serbia can help land BTTS bet

Serbia can cause England issues and help land BTTS
Serbia are backed to score v England @ 21/20

Day three of Euro 2024 sees England make their tournament bow and Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - thinks he's found a way to profit from a vulnerable Three Lions defence...

England Superboost

The two main men who can propel England to glory this summer are captain Harry Kane and wonderkid Jude Bellingham. They will be at the forefront for the Three Lions.

We know this, and so do the opposition, who will be looking to stop them both by any means necessary.

has been fouled 24 times in his last 20 England starts, and multiple times eight of his last 13 as he drops deep to pick up the ball and make things happen. His numbers heightened during the last major tournament too, winning nine fouls in just five games in Qatar.

Bellingham, meanwhile, averages 2.09 fouls won per 90 for England, and has been fouled 4+ times in each of his last three caps, and 20 times in just seven recent games.

Together, they have been fouled a combined 55 times in their last 15 England games!

Poland v Netherlands (14:00) - Back Poles to dig in

Poland will have to make this an ugly game to get a result. They do have the tools to do so, winning the most aerial (22.1 per 90) and ground duels (56 per 90) in the qualification period add to a defence that has the ninth-best expected goals against record in the qualifiers at 0.64 per 90.

Patience will be required by Netherlands, who did struggle against Greece and Republic of Ireland to break down such defensive focused teams en route to Germany. It's a very passive style of play under Ronald Koeman with a reliance on clean sheets, led by Virgil van Dijk, likely to be what a successful tournament will be built on.

This could be deadlock for large parts where defences on top so the under 2.5 goal line is an obvious starting point at 1.981/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

Slovenia v Denmark (17:00) - Andersen can strike at 11/112.00

Only Belgium won more corners per 90 than Denmark in qualifying with the Danes registering 8.2 corners across their fixtures. The Danes are notoriously strong from set piece situations, so they are a team to give respect to when plotting a punting angle of attack regarding centre-backs scoring. They will give you a chance to land a big price.

Joachim Andersen stood out at the prices at 11/112.00 to score. The Crystal Palace defender has been threatening to open his tally for his country, firing 12 shots in his last 11 starts. The impressive Palace defender has an eye for a goal as shown by his fantastic finish for Palace away at Manchester United earlier this season. He'll break his international duck soon enough.

England vs Serbia (20:00) - Defensive issues point to BTTS

Gareth Southgate is a smart man, and he has built England into a team that mirrors the work of Manchester City and, in more recent seasons, Arsenal. It makes sense.

His team are all about control, counter pressing, being outstanding at set pieces and sharp when defending transitions. Southgate knows that if his team tick all those boxes, the quality within the squad in attacking areas will win him games. A problem has emerged in this plan, however.

Due to issues regarding fitness and form in their backline, this England team now look so vulnerable when teams counter-attack.

Iceland were able to make 71 passes in England's final third at Wembley, showcasing just how easily they progressed the ball up the pitch. Only against Brazil and Italy had England conceded so many passes into their final third from their last 15 internationals. A very worrying statistic considering England were almost at full-tilt.

This method of quick transition attacking is how teams exploit Manchester City when they drop their levels and it's how England will concede goals at this tournament. How many goals will depend on how destructive and disciplined Declan Rice can be in front of what is looking a very shoddy and unprepared back four, especially at left-back where a fading force in Kieran Trippier is giving me sleepless nights.

If Iceland were able to find a way to create such healthy metrics in the final third then an attack that contains the likes of Sergej Milinković-Savić, Dusan Tadic, Dušan Vlahović and Aleksandar Mitrovic should offer a suitable threat to Jordan Pickford's goal.

This has led to me to the 21/202.05 on offer from the Betfair Sportsbook on both teams scoring - I want a bit of that. Serbia's last six qualification games landed for both teams to score backers as although they possess some quality goalscorers they do also ship goals, conceding six goals across their two friendlies with Austria and Russia earlier this month.

England should get the job done but I think Serbia are overpriced to get on the scoresheet.

Listen to Football...Only Bettor Euro 2024 preview with Alan Shearer

Follow Lewis' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports

Listen to Football...Only Bettor - Euro 2024 Day Three

Now head to our Euro 2024 HUB for more day three content!

Recommended bets

New Customers can get £50 in free bets!

Available to new customers only. Place a £10 bet on the Betfair Sportsbook and you will receive £50 in free bets to use on Bet Builders and Accas! Opt-in here and T&cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.