Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Day Three Predictions: Back 6/1 van Dijk on Betfair Exchange

Poland struggle to defend set piece which is why Jimmy The Punt is touting a Dutch centre back to be amongst the goals.
Jimmy says back van Dijk to punish Polish weakness

Jimmy The Punt has scoured the Exchange markets ahead of an intriguing looking day three featuring Serbia vs England and Slovenia vs Denmark. The bet comes from the opening game in Group D where he expects a Dutch defender to expose the opposition's weakness...

England Superboost

The two main men who can propel England to glory this summer are captain Harry Kane and wonderkid Jude Bellingham. They will be at the forefront for the Three Lions.

We know this, and so do the opposition, who will be looking to stop them both by any means necessary.

has been fouled 24 times in his last 20 England starts, and multiple times eight of his last 13 as he drops deep to pick up the ball and make things happen. His numbers heightened during the last major tournament too, winning nine fouls in just five games in Qatar.

Bellingham, meanwhile, averages 2.09 fouls won per 90 for England, and has been fouled 4+ times in each of his last three caps, and 20 times in just seven recent games.

Together, they have been fouled a combined 55 times in their last 15 England games!

Poland vs Netherlands

Sunday, June 16, 14:00

Poland's first game of Euro 2024 is against the Netherlands.

The Eagles are 7.06/1 to get three points and rank outsiders to emerge from Group D at 2.829/5. As if things weren't already looking bleak, captain and all-time leading scorer Robert Lewendowski is set to miss Sunday's game after hobbling off in the final pre-tournament friendly against Turkey.

Oranje head to Germany off the back of 4-0 wins over Canada and Iceland. Apart from the clean sheets, slick tempo and clinical finishing, what really caught my eye in these matches was Ronald Koeman's side's aerial dominance.

Virgil van Dijk netted twice, both headers and both from set pieces. Although friendlies must be taken with a pinch of salt, heading into the summer with two goals in as many games can only be a good thing for Netherlands skipper.

His price to score anytime certainly appeals on Sunday, I'll even be having a little punt on the brace as well. This is 50% down to greed and 50% down to Oranje's opponents who happen to be atrocious at defending set pieces.

Michał Probierz took charge of Poland in mid-September and oversaw five qualification games against Faroe Islands, Moldova, Czechia, Estonia and Wales.

Staggeringly, the Eagles only conceded three goals in those games, two of which came from set pieces and of the 34 shots they shipped, 15 came via dead balls.

I am excited to see the damage van Dijk and co could cause Poland on Sunday.

Slovenia vs Denmark

Sunday, June 16, 17:00

Denmark are currently trading at 1.364/11 to qualify from Group C ahead of Serbia and Sunday's opponents Slovenia in the betting.

The Danes have enjoyed two successful tournaments since Kasper Hjulmand took the reins. They reached the semi's in Euro 2020 and followed that up with their best World Cup finish in Qatar.

Replacing pragmatist Age Hareide on the cusp of the last euros, Hjulmand developed a reputation as a more attack-minded coach but in truth he is more astute than he gets credit for.

He will be well aware of the threat Slovenia could pose to his side having only just pipped Sunday's opponents on head-to-head record in qualification. The Dragons finished on the same points as Denmark (22) and boasted a better goal-difference.

Slovenia are blessed with strength at both ends of the pitch with Atletico Madrid stopper Jan Oblak in between the sticks and Benjamin Sesko leading the line.

The frontman netted five times in qualification and 24 goals in total for club and country.

The 21-year-old has been touted all across Europe and certainly has the quality to bloody the Dane's nose. However, at 6ft 5, instead of delving into the goalscorer market, I think it is worth siding with him to literally bloody the Dane's nose. Sesko committed 11 fouls and nine qualification appearances and is currently trading at 2.89/5 to commit two or more fouls on the Exchange.

Serbia vs England

Sunday, June 16, 20:00

Although it won't make too much difference to who actually starts on Sunday, Gareth Southgate made some bold decisions in his squad selection.

According to the odds, the main area of uncertainty lies in central defensive midfield. Who will start alongside Declan Rice?

If reports are to be believed, it'll be Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Paul Merson said if there was a passing competition in England, TAA would win it "by a country mile" and it is this facet of the Liverpool man's game that could turn the tide in England's favour on Sunday.

What Serbia lacks in tactical organisation, they make up for in attacking enthusiasm. If the Three Lions try to tentatively feel their way into this game, the Eagles could gain the upper hand and grow in confidence.

No doubt Alexandr Mitrovic will look to exploit the left hand side of England's defence, a potential chink in the Three Lions armour with Harry Maguire out injured.

Alexander-Arnold won't allow Serbia to get a stranglehold of the game though. He is not one to dally on the ball, his big diagonal passes should force Serbia back and it could be where the game is won and lost.

I would be tempted to have a look at TAA in the goalscorer or assist market and is 3.3512/5 in the latter on the Exchange.

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